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Which team would be a better matchup for Toronto in Round 1: Florida or Boston?
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    Which team would be a better matchup for Toronto in Round 1: Florida or Boston?

    Barring a late-season collapse, the Toronto Maple Leafs are locked into the third spot in the Atlantic Division. That means they are staring down a first-round matchup against either the Boston Bruins or Florida Panthers. As of Monday, the Maple Leafs had a 59.8 per cent chance of drawing the Bruins, who lead the Panthers by one point in the division race. (Florida has one game in hand.)

    Regardless of who the Maple Leafs’ opponent is when the playoffs start next month, they are in for a tough series. But is one more advantageous than the other from a purely analytical standpoint? Let’s take a look.

    BRUINS

    Shockingly, the Bruins are leading the NHL with 95 points. The retirements of future Hall of Famer Patrice Bergeron and steady hand David Krejci were supposed to derail Boston, but that has not been the case on the surface. (Fifteen overtime losses have certainly helped prop up the Bruins’ record.)

    Under the hood, however, this is not the juggernaut that set league records with 65 wins and 135 points last season — specifically on the defensive end. The Bruins’ potential playoff opponents will look to exploit that. (The Maple Leafs average 3.58 actual goals and 3.55 expected goals per game, both of which rank third in the league.)


    If not for Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, who have combined to save 31 goals above expected (second most in the league), the Bruins would not be where they are in the standings. Coach Jim Montgomery’s handling of his goaltenders in the playoffs will be under harsh scrutiny after Ullmark wilted during the Bruins’ first-round loss to the Panthers last year.

    “I’m not going to commit to anything, but I am very comfortable platooning them in the playoffs,” Montgomery told reporters Sunday.

    One thing that has not changed for the Bruins is their level of physicality. They win more puck battles (29.6 per game) than any other team. That toughness was on display earlier this month when the Bruins defeated the Maple Leafs twice in four days.

    PANTHERS

    Toronto fans wanted Florida in the second round last year. Then they got Florida, and it was not pretty.

    The bad news for the Maple Leafs (and the rest of the league) is that the Panthers are the definition of a wagon this season, ranking second in expected goals against (2.61) and fifth in expected goals for (3.38) per game.

    The Panthers are not fancy offensively, dumping in the puck a league-high 53.7 per cent of the time. They pressure opponents into making mistakes, scoring 33 goals within five seconds of a turnover (tied for sixth best).

    Toronto experienced that in its second-round series last season; Florida scored twice within five seconds of a turnover and six times within 10 seconds of a turnover over five games.


    Experts at burrowing under opponents’ skin, the Panthers are tied for fifth in power-play opportunities, and their top unit is one of the best. Since the all-star break, the combination of Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Brandon Montour has scored 15 goals — most among all power-play units over that span. (Toronto’s penalty kill is at 75 per cent in 19 games since its bye week ended.)

    As crazy as it might sound, the Bruins appear to be the “better” first-round opponent for the Maple Leafs. The Panthers do not have any obvious weaknesses.

    All stats via Sportlogiq

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    As the NHL playoffs approach, the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to secure their spot in the postseason and potentially make a deep run. One of the key factors in their success will be their first-round matchup, which could be against either the Florida Panthers or the Boston Bruins.

    Both teams present unique challenges for the Maple Leafs, but there are some key differences that could make one team a better matchup than the other. Let’s take a closer look at each team and how they stack up against Toronto.

    The Florida Panthers have been a surprise team this season, sitting near the top of the standings in the Atlantic Division. Led by superstar forward Aleksander Barkov and a strong supporting cast, the Panthers have been one of the highest-scoring teams in the league. Their offensive firepower could pose a significant threat to the Maple Leafs, who have struggled at times defensively this season.

    On the other hand, the Boston Bruins are a perennial playoff contender with a roster full of experienced players. Led by veterans like Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, the Bruins have a reputation for being a tough, physical team that excels in playoff hockey. Their defensive structure and goaltending could present a challenge for the Maple Leafs, who rely heavily on their high-powered offense.

    When comparing the two teams, it’s clear that both present unique challenges for Toronto. The Panthers’ offensive firepower could test the Maple Leafs’ defense, while the Bruins’ experience and physicality could make for a grueling series. Ultimately, the decision of which team would be a better matchup for Toronto in Round 1 will come down to how well the Maple Leafs can play to their strengths and exploit their opponent’s weaknesses.

    In conclusion, both the Florida Panthers and the Boston Bruins would be tough opponents for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the playoffs. While each team presents its own set of challenges, the Maple Leafs will need to be at their best no matter who they face. It will be interesting to see how things play out as the playoffs draw nearer and which team ultimately proves to be the better matchup for Toronto.