OTTAWA — They weren’t supposed to be in this position.
Go back and read all of the rosy predictions for the Ottawa Senators based on the excitement level last fall.
This was the season they would compete for a playoff spot.
This was the year they would add, not subtract, at the trade deadline, to enhance a playoff roster.
This season was going to end a seven-year playoff drought.
Instead, all we have is example No. 4,642 of why making hockey predictions is a treacherous business. Who had the Philadelphia Flyers holding down a spot in the east, or the Detroit Red Wings flying past the Senators in the Atlantic Division?
Wasn’t Ottawa supposed to be further along the development road than either of Buffalo or Detroit?
We learn yet again that growth, whether in the stock market, life or sports, is rarely linear.
Teams often take a step back before lurching forward.
Neither is the development of individual players always straightforward. Beware the early riches headed to young players.
So many previous assumptions about the Senators have been turned upside down, including whether they have all the so-called “core” pieces in place and simply have to add some depth around them.
Under new management, this disappointing Senators season and roster are going to get a thorough (let’s avoid the term “forensic”) examination from first-year general manager Steve Staios, senior VP of hockey operations Dave Poulin and associate GM Ryan Bowness.
Not just at the trade deadline. But at the draft and over the summer.
Projected deadline day cap space: $6,150,000.
Cap space committed to 2024-25: $75,309,047 committed to 17 players
Draft picks
Needs
They’re everywhere, now. Sprouting like weeds. The goaltending has been lousy, on the whole. Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg are both under contract for next season (and three more after that for Korpisalo!) We can’t imagine a scenario in which Staios starts next season with this same tandem. The Sens need to change things up here.
The defence needs more grit and muscle. They are also desperate for a right-shot defenceman.
Up front, while it was thought Ottawa was set at centre, the latest injury to Josh Norris has thrown that theory into question. Norris has averaged 45 games per season since he first joined the team full-time in 2020. Tim Stützle can still dazzle, but has 14 goals compared with 39 last season. He has had ups and downs and won’t come close to the 90 points he put up last year, so this has been a step back. Hopefully a blip. Centres Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig have been pleasant surprises.
On the wing, there is lots of room for improvement. Management has let it be known it wants the Senators to add some experience and poise to their roster. More veteran forwards of the Claude Giroux type would be ideal. He’s the ultimate. But cheaper, role players are required.
Potential targets
Staios is known to covet right-shot, defensive stalwart Chris Tanev, who just got dealt to Dallas from Calgary ahead of the deadline. The Senators will certainly circle back in the summertime with this pending free agent, but they will have to convince Tanev that this Ottawa team is going somewhere in the near future. Given the outcome of this season, that will be a tough sell. Like Giroux, Tanev is in his mid-30s and doesn’t have years to fiddle with a long-range plan.
With no shot at a playoff spot this spring, the Senators won’t be in the rental market but could be eyeing an opportunity to bring in a prospect or veteran role player with some term.
Clearly, there will be more options at the draft and in free agency as far as updating the roster.
It makes little sense for Ottawa to be competing with playoff teams for rental players, but Staios will keep an eye on possible side deals that could be a fit.
Assets to trade
Winger Vladimir Tarasenko is the most obvious chip to play. A pending free agent, Tarasenko is a proven scorer, a proven playoff performer and a Stanley Cup champion. He is having a decent season, fifth in team scoring with 41 points and his plus-13 rating is second on the club to Greig’s plus-17. Tarasenko, 32, recently changed agents, presumably with an eye toward getting an extension worked out with any team he joins at the deadline. He has a no-trade clause so will be able to approve any move proposed by Staios. There will be plenty of interest in a quality scorer like Tarasenko. A year ago he was moved to the Rangers in a deal that included a first-round pick back to St. Louis. Can Ottawa get a first-rounder for Tarasenko? If not, perhaps a second-rounder and a prospect.
Former Sens GM Pierre Dorion was determined to land Jakob Chychrun for the blue line, but now that Chychrun has been in Ottawa for a full year it’s apparent there is little to distinguish him from Thomas Chabot. After next season, Chychrun will be looking to cash in on a new contract. Something has to give. And it might be Chychrun this week.
Staios said recently he was disappointed Chychrun’s name has surfaced in trade rumours. But he didn’t say he wouldn’t trade the player. The list of available D-men is thin this year. That has pumped up interest in Chychrun, 25, who has another year on his deal, making him more attractive than the average rental.
Did a Chychrun deadline deal just escalate from possible to probable?
Smaller assets: If there is interest, players like pending UFA forward Dominik Kubalik, winger Mark Kastelic and defenceman Erik Brannstrom, a pending RFA, would be available.