Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.

Tai Tuivasa will attempt to snap a three-fight losing streak when he faces fellow heavyweight finisher Marcin Tybura in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event at the APEX.

All main card competitors successfully made weight Friday, including featured co-main event welterweights Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa, while three fighters scheduled to compete on the Saturday’s prelims were off the mark. 

Natan Levy weighed a half-pound above the non-title lightweight limit ahead of his bout with Mike Davis; Chelsea Chandler missed the women’s bantamweight limit by one pound a day before she fights Josiane Nunes; Danny Silva, set to meet Josh Culibao, was over the non-title featherweight limit by 2.5 pounds. 

All three fighters will forfeit 20 per cent of his or her purse to their respective opponent but all three bouts will proceed as scheduled.

Complete UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura bout order and predictions below:

MAIN CARD

— Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura

— Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa

— Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

— Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson

— Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena

— Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian

PRELIMINARY CARD

— Thiago Moisés vs. Mitch Ramirez

— Natan Levy vs. Mike Davis

— Josiane Nunes vs. Chelsea Chandler

— Jafel Filho vs. Ode’ Osbourne

— Josh Culibao vs. Danny Silva

— Cory McKenna vs. Jaqueline Amorin

— Charalampos Grigoriou vs. Chad Anheliger

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CAGE LOCKS

Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”

Aaron: Tuivasa vs. Tybura doesn’t go the distance -650 (DraftKings)

It seems like these heavyweight main events getting finished early are no longer a foregone conclusion, but I feel very secure about any five-round Tuivasa fight ending within 25 minutes.

Dan: Gerald Meerschaert to win outright -225 (Betway)

Meerschaert’s experience and submission skills will be too much for Bryan Barberena in this one. Barberena has lost 3 in a row, with 2 of them coming by submission. GM3 will be looking for a submission finish to add to his long list of tap-out casualties. His relentless pursuit of a strangle stoppage should be enough to get him a win on scorecards, if not sooner.

Mike: Nzechukwu to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission -330 (DraftKings)

OSP is a savvy vet with a plethora of stoppage wins in his career and Kennedy Nzechukwu’s chin is not made of granite so even though Nzechukwu is coming off a first-round KO loss last August to Dustin Jacoby he is fighting at a higher level than Saint Preux at this stage of their careers and a decision win doesn’t do too much for Nzechukwu’s stock. He needs a finish and OSP has been stopped in three of his past four.

Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +117 (to win $117)
2024 Record: 3-5
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200.73

OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE

Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in? 

Aaron: Josiane Nunes -138 (Bet365)

Nunes will be giving up quite a bit of height as she typically does in her fights, but I expect she will land the bigger strikes throughout her fight against Chelsea Chandler. One thing to look out for is how Chandler looks on the scale, as she has not made the bantamweight cut-off in over four years. For those reasons, I lean Nunes.

Dan: Josiane Nunes -138 (Bet365)

I am with Aaron on this one. Josiane Nunes is unbeaten in the UFC, has just one loss in her pro career and that was way back in 2013. Her experience in deep waters should see her get her arm raised by UD after 3 rounds.

Mike: Josiane Nunes -138 (Bet365)

I suspect Chelsea Chandler won’t enjoy being hit by Josiane Nunes and I believe Nunes can avoid being held down, so I like the Brazilian despite a noticeable height disparity. Mind you, as the records below show, my radar for picking favourites this year has been wonky.

Aaron’s favourite record: 5-3
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $31

Dan’s favourite record: 6-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $166.80

Mike’s favourite record: 3-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$301.46

HUNGRIEST DOG

Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?

Aaron: Jacqueline Amorim +145 (DraftKings)

Amorim is a do-or-die fighter who is always looking for submissions and fights with a lot of aggression. That can easily backfire against McKenna, who is typically more methodical, but I feel like the wrong fighter is favoured here, so I will go with Amorim, who I think wins this fight more often than not.

Dan: Marcin Tybura +105 (Caesars)

I like Tybura’s chances in a five-round fight here. Tai Tuivasa hasn’t done a Shoey in his last three bouts, with each loss coming inside the distance. The Aussie is coming off a knee injury and look for Tybura to ask serious questions about it early in the fight. As both fighters begin to slow down after two gruelling rounds, I expect the momentum to start swinging in Tybura’s favour. He is more comfortable in the clinch and could very well snatch a limb or win via ground and pound.

Mike: Pannie Kianzad +200 (Bodog)

There aren’t too many dogs that jump out at me on this card but the value on this line is skewed. Macy Chiasson being a -250 favourite against a proven UFC talent, even one against whom she has a previous win, raises a red flag for me. As long as Kianzad is not mentally defeated prior to entering the cage – she was submitted by Chiasson in a 2018 TUF finale – this bout should be more competitive than the two-to-one odds suggest it’ll be.

Aaron’s underdog record: 4-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $145

Dan’s underdog record: 1-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$595

Mike’s underdog record: 4-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $62

DART THROW

What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like? 

Aaron: Marcin Tybura by submission +500 (DraftKings)

It is pretty clear that Tybura’s best path to victory is to take Tuivasa down and his submission skills have always been a weapon for him. Should he successfully take Tuivasa down, I expect that he pursues a submission finish and, for that reason, these are friendly odds.

Dan: Cory McKenna to win in Round 1 or 2 +540 (BetRivers)

While a decision victory for either athlete is the most likely outcome, McKenna possesses tremendous striking power. With the Dart Throw parameters starting at +500, this is a good a long shot as any. McKenna also has a submission win under her belt and her sneaky striking power might just fool the oddsmakers here.

Mike: Mike Davis to win by KO/TKO in Round 2 or 3 +500 (FanDuel)

We haven’t seen Davis fight since his decision win over Viacheslav Borshchev almost 18 months ago and in his most high-profile matchup he was submitted by Gilbert Burns. Even though he’s a heavy favourite I think people are sleeping on how good Davis can be. He should control the fight with his boxing and I think once Levy uses up his energy early, especially after missing weight, Davis will be live for a finish even though the odds imply he should cruise to a decision win.

Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-7-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$700

Dan’s dart throw record: 1-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0

Mike’s dart throw record: 2-5-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $800

(Listed betting odds above as of Friday and subject to change)