Phew. After a too-close-for-comfort, nearly-historic seven-game series against the Celtics, the Heat have done it again.
The world-breaking, put-back buzzer-beater finish from Derrick White in Game 6 almost felt like a signal that the worst is yet to come for the Miami Heat. That finish could’ve been the final nail in the coffin en route to a potential 3-0 comeback.
However, this Heat team has been nothing if not resilient. Without a glimmer of fear, they came out swinging in Game 7, building an 11-point lead by halftime and never looking back.
How many times do the Miami Heat need to beat the odds until people start believing in them? ESPN Analytics gave them a three per cent chance to take down the Boston Celtics and they’ve now been given an 11 per cent chance to win the title.
Upset after upset, the Heat have shown an appetite for being an underdog mirrored only by their South Floridian compatriots the Florida Panthers. June could truly play out as the month that the “Florida Man” redeems its image.
It’s a tall task, and though it could be argued that the Nuggets are the toughest competition Miami has faced up to now, if you think they’ll back down you clearly haven’t been paying attention.
With four wins to go, can Jimmy Butler hoist his first Larry O’Brien while Pat Riley gets his tenth, Erik Spoelstra his fourth and Kyle Lowry earns his second championship? To get you ready for the NBA Finals, we take a look at how the Heat can take down the Nuggets, one burning question the team faces and who can be Miami’s X-Factor.
Finals Schedule:
Game 1: Thursday, June 1 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 2: Sunday, June 4 @ Denver, 8 p.m. ET
Game 3: Wednesday, June 7 @ Miami 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Friday, June 9 @ Miami 8:30 p.m. ET
*Game 5: Monday, June 12 @ Denver, 8:30 p.m. ET
*Game 6: Thursday, June 15 @ Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET
*Game 7: Sunday, June 18 @ Denver, 8 p.m. ET
*If necessary
Season Series: Nuggets won 2-0
Miami’s regular season: 44-38 (Seventh in Eastern Conference)
Road to the NBA Finals:
Round 1: Eliminated Milwaukee Bucks 4-1
Round 2: Eliminated New York Knicks 4-2
Round 3: Eliminated Boston Celtics 4-3
Why the Miami Heat will win: Heat Culture will prove itself once again
One of the most iconic pictures in recent basketball memory came following a game between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets. After Nikola Jokic pushed former Heat forward Markieff Morris to the ground, the entire roster gathered outside the Nuggets’ locker room creating a scene worthy of a Renaissance painting.
No image has been more indicative or has been able to tell the story so wholly of what “Heat Culture” is.
If they intend to take down the juggernaut that has been the Nuggets throughout this post-season, it won’t be on the back of a superior roster. Instead, it’ll be through their patented tenacity and an uncanny ability to find contributions throughout their lineup.
On paper, they don’t have the sort of roster you might associate with a championship contender, but the buy-in and work between the lines have been astounding. The team we saw in the regular season is a long-forgotten memory of who they are now.
They’re made up of undrafted players, late first-rounders and discarded guys seemingly past their primes. More importantly, though, the Heat are made up of players that fit their system and culture.
Caleb Martin, who had a legitimate shot at winning the Larry Bird Eastern Conference MVP trophy last round, was waived by the Charlotte Hornets and signed as a two-way player by the Heat in 2021. Against the Celtics, he averaged 19.3 points (.602/.489/.875 shooting splits) and scored 1.36 points per jump shot, the second-most in the postseason according to Kirk Goldsberry.
Gabe Vincent, an undrafted guard out of UC Santa Barbara, functioned as a key secondary ball-handler in the absence of Tyler Herro. In the Conference Finals, he shot an eye-popping 51 per cent from deep on over five attempts per game. He was also a clinical pick-and-roll defender, holding opponents to 0.94 points-per-possession in those actions, a play the Nuggets love to run with their Jokic-Murray two-man game.
Duncan Robinson, a player who most had written off as a one-trick pony, has returned to being a lights-out three-point shooter, hitting nearly 52 per cent of his looks (up from 32 per cent in the regular season). However, he’s also developed his cutting game, finishing 80 per cent of his looks at the rim in the playoffs. Though his defence is still subpar, his block on a Jaylen Brown three-pointer in Game 7 felt like a tell-tale sign that the Heat weren’t going to become the first team to blow a 3-0 series lead.
Without even mentioning guys like Kyle Lowry (who should have an easier time against a more porous Nuggets point-of-attack defence), the Heat, though the names and numbers aren’t as gaudy, have built a team that knows themselves and can go toe-to-toe on any given night, in any given arena.
The buy-in with this team has been apparent, you don’t become only the second eight-seed to make the Finals without it. Their run to the Finals is already a testament to the legitimacy of Heat Culture, a win here would simply cement it.
Burning Question: How concerned should we be about the Heat almost being on the wrong side of history?
What might be lost in the fact that the Heat pulled it together at the end is the fact that they even had to pull it together.
Up 3-0 in their series against the Celtics, the Miami Heat were blown out in Games 4 and 5, then gave up the buzzer-beater to White in Game 6 following an incredibly inefficient showing from Butler and Bam Adebayo.
The Nuggets on the other hand made quick work of the Los Angeles Lakers and have had the chance to rest since they completed the sweep on May 22.
The disparity in efficiency for the 33-year-old Jimmy Butler was apparent during the Conference Finals as he scored 24.7 points on .420/.348/.833 shooting splits, way down from the 31.1 points on .527/.361/.792 splits he put up in the first two rounds. In the three losses against the Celtics, he finished with a combined -44 plus-minus, .507 true shooting percentage and a .394 effective field goal percentage.
This isn’t to blame their near-historic collapse on Butler, the only reason the Heat are where they are is due to his otherworldly clutch gene. However, as the oldest star player in this upcoming series against the Nuggets, it’s fair to expect his legs to feel a bit heavier than his counterparts.
The Nuggets are a physically imposing team who made the Lakers, a team that dominated through their size, feel small in comparison. Meanwhile, the Heat don’t possess enough bodies to bang with Jokic down low. Adebayo, despite being heralded as one of the premiere defensive bigs, doesn’t have the size to contend with the Joker.
Past Adebayo, they’ll have to turn to guys who come with their own set of limitations. Haywood Highsmith is essentially a non-factor on offence, Martin simply isn’t big enough, Kevin Love just doesn’t have the foot speed and Cody Zeller is Cody Zeller.
The Miami Heat are coming into this series undermanned personnel-wise to deal with a team like the Nuggets. They might not be able to keep up with the movement-heavy and physical squad they’re now up against, and having almost been on the wrong side of history doesn’t help. Had they closed out their series in four or five games, the question of energy at their disposal might be less of a concern.
Heat’s X-Factor: Holding out for a (Tyler) Herro
Everything about the Miami Heat’s run to the Finals has been astounding. But perhaps the cherry on top is that they’ve done it without their best volume scorer in Tyler Herro.
Herro suffered a fractured hand in Game 1 of their first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks and initial reports suggested that he wouldn’t be able to return until sometime during the NBA Finals.
Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported that he’s ramping up his workouts with the team and they’re targeting a return for Game 3 of the Finals as the series heads to Miami.
Having not played in over a month, questions about his ability to be in game shape and shake off whatever rust he’s got will be swirling. He’s never been an efficient scorer, and in the three games following an ankle injury earlier this season, he scored a paltry 13 a game on horrendous .283/.250/.750 shooting splits.
If he rejoins the rotation and struggles to find his rhythm after this long of a break, it might take away from the play style the team has built without him.
Another talking point brought up about the Heat without Herro has been that maybe they’re better off without him. His 16.6 field goal attempts in the regular season led the team, however, his 53.5 effective field goal percentage ranked in the 48th percentile league-wide.
With his 16.6 shots getting spread throughout the lineup, players like Martin or Robinson have been given bigger opportunities and succeeded in their roles.
On the other hand, considering how tired the Heat looked in their three losses to the Celtics, having an additional ball-handler to relieve Butler’s load could be key.
Herro is the best secondary shot-creator that the Heat have, and against a less-than-stellar Nuggets backcourt defence, he projects to be a key offensive contributor for them. In his one game against Denver this season he scored 26 points on 50 per cent from the field and 44 per cent from deep. A small sample size but a solid one nonetheless.
Racing on the thunder and rising with the Heat, Herro’s return is set to be a key turning point for this series. Whether it’s a boon or detriment to the chemistry this squad has built up to now is yet to be decided, but one way or another, it may swing these NBA Finals.