A year ago this time, nearly anyone predicted that the Orioles would win 101 games, that the Marlins would emerge as a playoff team or that the season would end with the Rangers beating the Diamondbacks in the World Series. Even a week ago, who would have believed that MLB would be investigating various betting-related allegations surrounding Shohei Ohtani’s former interpreter?

All of which to say, in the course of 162 games, much of what we think we know about baseball can shift. Just when you think you know what’s coming, the sport tends to surprise – and it’s with that knowledge in mind that we ask our Sportsnet baseball writers to look ahead.

With Opening Day approaching, we turn to our panel for their thoughts on the biggest storylines ahead of the 2024 season plus predictions on who will make the playoffs and which players are best positioned to win major awards.

Let’s get started:

Few predicted which teams would be the last ones standing in 2024. We’re a long way from the World Series, but what’s one team that’s not getting enough attention right now? 

Jeff Blair
The Dodgers seemed to sign everybody – and the players they didn’t sign ended up with the Giants. The Diamondbacks went to the World Series. No one’s talking about the Padres – except me.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
For me, it’s the Tigers. In a division with no clear favourite, there’s an opportunity and I think the Tigers, with their emerging young core and mix of solid veterans, are poised to seize it. Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Tarik Skubal should figure prominently on the Tigers’ next contender while veterans like Mark Canha, Kenta Maeda and Gio Urshela would help deepen any roster. I see 85-win potential, which is to say they could be in this until the end.

Shi Davidi
There are a lot of candidates here because it really does feel like this is the Dodgers’ world and we’re all just living in it, but let’s go with the San Diego Padres. Yes, even after they traded Juan Soto and Blake Snell left in free agency, even with the Dodgers becoming their own solar system, even as the Diamondbacks and Giants both beefed up. New manager Mike Shildt is changing the vibes there, Bogaerts, Tatis, Cronenworth, Machado and Kim make for a daunting lineup gauntlet, Darvish, while Musgrove and King were a solid starting point for the rotation and then the relentless A.J. Preller made a sneaky spring deal to add Dylan Cease. This Padres team has a pathway to being more like what last year’s hyped group was supposed to be.

Arden Zwelling
The Seattle Mariners are already running out a one-two-three in their rotation as good as any in baseball; if Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo can build on the promise they demonstrated in 2023, you’ve got a dangerous post-season team on pitching alone. This winter’s underrated additions of Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver further build out a solid supporting mix — J.P. Crawford and Cal Raleigh were nearly five-win players in 2023 — around MVP candidate Julio Rodriguez. And the bullpen’s capable enough to reach the trade deadline when it can be cheaply reinforced. The Mariners might just mess around and win the AL West.

David Singh
I answered the Braves last year and I’m sticking with them again. I still think they get overshadowed by the Dodgers in the NL despite having a scary, deep lineup that can mash with anybody.

Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers should be pretty compelling. Which players (if any) are you more intrigued to watch in 2024? 

Shi Davidi
Only amid the seismic aftershocks from the winter of Ohtani could Juan Soto in the Bronx be relatively relegated to the sidelines in the baseball order. But Soto batting ahead of Aaron Judge and getting on base 40 per cent of the time should be must-see stuff, forming one of the most intimidating duos in recent memories, akin to peak David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez.

David Singh
Juan Soto. He’s playing for a contract and possesses a personality that’s tailor-made for New York. Add in the fact that he’ll be hitting ahead of Aaron Judge and you’ve got a guy seemingly destined for a monster MVP campaign.

Jeff Blair
Shohei Ohtani is the subject of more official MLB investigations (1) than he’s hit regular-season homers in a Dodgers uniform. Tough to be more compelling. But if you’re going to insist … I’m actually more intrigued with his teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto and his transition to North America. And I think he’ll actually have a bigger say in how far the Dodgers go in 2024. Oh yeah: I hate to do this to you, Blue Jays fans, but  I can’t wait to see Jackson Holliday get up here. The Orioles are flat-out fun and – shh! – might even be likable. Oh for the days of Buck Showalter reinventing the game every other inning and scowling at Gibby and Stro … 

Ben Nicholson-Smith
Probably no one, because even in a year that he doesn’t pitch I could see Ohtani setting a career high in home runs or stolen bases. But if anyone can come close to Ohtani, it’d be a rookie. I could see Wyatt Langford hitting 30 home runs, or Paul Skenes emerging as a frontline arm just one year after being drafted or Jackson Holliday hitting .310 against big-league pitching. As a fan of the sport, any of those storylines would be pretty fun to follow.

Arden Zwelling
The Norfolk Tides — Baltimore’s triple-A team — ought to be a pretty fun watch. Julio Rodriguez could take another step, go 40-40, and win MVP. Tarik Skubal sat 97 this spring while landing multiple secondaries for strikes — if he stays healthy, he’s going to be a beast. And Spencer Strider with a new curveball might just strike out 300.

MLB’s rule changes were a huge success in 2023. What other innovations would benefit the sport moving forward? Or is it time to slow the pace of change for a bit?

Jeff Blair
I hate myself for it, but I’ve become a fan of the in-game challenge system for balls and strikes.

Shi Davidi
I saw the ABS challenge system in action a couple of times last year and … I think I like it? I don’t love the idea of going fully automated for balls and strikes behind the plate but letting teams question a sketchy call at a pivotal moment seems reasonable to me. Not sure what the sweet spot is for the number of challenges each team gets, but I don’t hate the idea of one per inning, retained for the frame if right.

Arden Zwelling
Bring us the ABS challenge system but instead of three challenges per team per game, give each position player one challenge per game, and each pitcher two per outing with the opportunity to earn a third by completing three innings. Get it right and you retain the challenge; get proven wrong and lose it. We don’t need fully automated balls and strikes — but we do need a way to counteract some of the more egregiously misjudged calls.

Ben Nicholson-Smith
I understand this would be a tough sell to owners, and I’m not predicting it happens any time soon, but there’s a strong case to be made for shortening the MLB season a little whenever the league expands to 32 teams. I mean, if you were drawing this all up from scratch, it’s hard to imagine you’d choose 162, right? It’s… so many games. Seeing the travel up close, sometimes I’m amazed they actually play every single one. But no, not even a Monday night game in Kansas City slips through the cracks. They just keep playing.

If the league went back to 154 games over the same six-month period, we’d still see just as much of Spencer Strider, Zack Wheeler and MLB’s aces, but there would be fewer bullpen games and fewer days where the entire team’s jetlagged and running on Red Bull. Baseball’s a bulk sport and always will be. And it’s great, let’s be clear on that. I’m just suggesting a slight pivot toward quality over quantity.

David Singh
Slow the pace of change for now. I know a lot of casual fans are still trying to keep up with the recent changes, so let’s give it some time before introducing more.

Let’s hear a baseball-related hot take you half-believe for 2024. 

Ben Nicholson-Smith
MLB should implement a draft forcing top-seeded playoff teams to choose their opponents. Also, MLB should build variability to its schedule so there’s baseball on TV more regularly during the day, and fewer Saturdays where the first game starts at 4 p.m. ET. Locally, teams and TV networks would object, but big picture it’d be good for the game’s growth.

David Singh
Yoshinobu Yamamoto struggles in his first year, Tyler Glasnow gets injured again and the Dodgers fail to capture the AL West crown.

Jeff Blair
This is the year the Tampa Bay Rays run out of the pixie dust they keep in the secret lab in the basement of the Trop.

Shi Davidi
Not sure how hot this take is, but eventually we’ll trace back however the next CBA in baseball ends up to the current tumult within the MLBPA. The players need to get this straightened out stat because the next set of negotiations are the last for commissioner Rob Manfred, whose contract expires in January 2029, and he could very well go for broke in a legacy-capping deal.

Arden Zwelling
The Kansas City Royals will finish above .500 and narrowly miss the postseason.

PLAYOFFS

Arden Zwelling
AL: Orioles, Twins, Mariners, Astros*, Yankees*, Rangers*

NL: Atlanta, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*, Giants*, Reds*

World Series: Mariners > Phillies

Jeff Blair
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers, Yankees*, Astros* and … Kevin Barker’s Toronto Blue Jays!!*

NL: Atlanta, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*, Diamondbacks*, Padres*

World Series: Atlanta > Astros

Shi Davidi
AL: Rays, Twins, Astros, Orioles*, Blue Jays*, Mariners*

NL: Atlanta, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*, Padres*, Diamondbacks*

World Series: Atlanta > Rays

Ben Nicholson-Smith
AL: Yankees, Twins, Mariners, Orioles*, Astros*, Blue Jays*

NL: Atlanta, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*, Padres*, Giants*

World Series: Atlanta > Yankees

David Singh
AL: Orioles, Twins, Astros, *Mariners, *Rays, *Yankees

NL: Atlanta, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, *Dodgers, *Phillies, *Cubs

World Series: Atlanta > Orioles

AWARDS

Shi Davidi
AL MVP: Juan Soto
AL Cy Young: Kevin Gausman
AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter

NL MVP: Mookie Betts
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler
NL Rookie of the Year: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Ben Nicholson-Smith
AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez
AL Cy: Luis Castillo
AL Rookie of the Year: Wyatt Langford

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr.
NL Cy: Spencer Strider
NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes

Arden Zwelling
AL MVP: Kyle Tucker
AL Cy Young: George Kirby
AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter

NL MVP: Austin Riley
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider
NL Rookie of the Year: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

David Singh
AL MVP: Juan Soto
AL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes
AL Rookie of the Year: Jackson Holliday

NL MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr.
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider
NL Rookie of the Year: Jung Hoo Lee

Jeff Blair
AL MVP: Adley Rutschman
AL Cy Young: Kevin Gausman
AL Rookie of the Year: Evan Carter

NL MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr.
NL Cy Young: Zack Wheeler
NL Rookie of the Year: Jackson Merrill