Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
A stacked UFC 299 fight card headlined by a bantamweight title fight between rivals Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera goes down Saturday in Miami with O’Malley looking to become the first champion to defend a title in 2024.
The co-main event is a scheduled five-round scrap between proven fan favourite Dustin Poirier and rising French star Benoit Saint Denis. The main card also features the UFC debut of longtime Bellator MMA star Michael “Venom” Page who faces Kevin Holland, another exciting welterweight matchup between Gilbert Burns and Jack Della Maddalena plus former 135-pound champion Petr Yan faces Song Yadong.
That follows a preliminary card with former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos taking on Mateusz Gamrot and heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida competing for a potential interim title shot.
Complete UFC 299 bout order and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera
— Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis
— Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page
— Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
— Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida
— Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber
— Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos
— Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips
— Ion Cuțelaba vs. Philipe Lins
— Michel Pereira vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk
— Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian
— C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev
— Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
The panel was half a round from extending the parlay streak to three weeks in a row, however Shamil Gaziev managed to last until the end of the fourth round in his loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik one week ago.
Aaron: Cerminara vs. Barber Over 1.5 Rounds -650 (Draftkings)
In her 16-fight UFC career, Cerminara (formerely Chookagian) has had one fight that did not start the third round and that was a loss to Jessica Andrade, a prolific finisher. While Barber does have finishing ability, I’m not overly concerned this one ends early.
Dan: Robelis Despaigne to win outright -300 (BetWay)
Believe the hype surrounding Robelis Despaigne. He makes his UFC debut this Saturday against an experienced competitor in Josh Parisian. Despaigne, who won a Bronze Medal at the 2012 Olympic Games in taekwondo, has been knocking guys out in rapid succession since transitioning to MMA. I see him winning his debut inside the distance, but take the outright win to ensure you get a small ROI.
Mike: Blaydes vs. Almeida to start Round 2 -235 (FanDuel)
Blaydes only loses when he gets knocked out by elite power punchers. Almeida should not be a threat to KO Blaydes early here. Blaydes only has one first-round win in the UFC and it was when Tom Aspinall blew out his knee in a fluke injury. Anything can happen at heavyweight…including this fight going beyond five minutes and us getting back on track at plus-money.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +119 (to win $119)
2024 Record: 2-5
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$319.73
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Oleksiejczuk vs Pereira ends inside the distance -185 (Bovada)
Since entering the UFC, Oleksiejczuk has only gone to a decision on two occasions and both were against fighters who are also more accustomed to fights going the distance. In this instance, against Michel Pereira, a fighter who is likely to engage in the striking with him, I expect that we see a finish.
Dan: Maycee Barber -200 (BetWay)
The future is now for Maycee Barber. She takes on an accomplished UFC competitor in Katlyn Chookagain, but has racked up five wins in a row and has grown in confidence with each passing bout. I see no signs of Barber’s positive momentum slowing down this Saturday.
Mike: Kevin Holland -125 (Bet365)
There’s a world where Holland plays games and ends up on the wrong end of the latest highlight finish from “Venom,” or I could even see this one playing out similarly to Holland’s loss to Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Holland, however, has a much stronger strength of schedule than the former Bellator star and more ways to win. I wasn’t a fan of Holland’s friendly sparring-style approach in his loss to Jack Della Maddalena so hopefully he enters the cage Saturday with his game face on in front of what should be a lively crowd.
Aaron’s favourite record: 4-3
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$23.05
Dan’s favourite record: 5-2
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: $116.80
Mike’s favourite record: 3-4
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$201.46
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Michael Page +115 (Bodog)
I expect the bout between Page and Kevin Holland to be closely contested, but we have seen what happens when Holland starts to have too much fun. He often falls into traps in fights like this where his opponent is willing to engage into the same sort of gamesmanship as he is and playing games with MVP is never a good idea.
Dan: Song Yadong +115 (Bodog)
Pounce on these odds before the money line moves. Song Yadong vs Petr Yan is a bout between two UFC stars trending in opposite directions. Yan has lost three in a row to top quality opposition and it will be very difficult for him to buck this trend against such a well-rounded fighter. Take Song Yadong at plus money while you still can!
Mike: Philipe Lins +110 (Bet365)
Lins has impressed me since dropping down from heavyweight. His matchup with Cutelaba should be quite the dustup for as long as it lasts and I favour the Brazilian’s durability. The recent MMA Math between these two (I’m dubbing this equation “The Tanner Boser Quotient”) favours Cutelaba who knocked out the Canadian in his most recent appearance while Lins lost to Boser via KO back in 2020.
Aaron’s underdog record: 3-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $30
Dan’s underdog record: 1-6
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$495
Mike’s underdog record: 3-4
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$48
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Rafael dos Anjos wins by decision +600 (Bet365)
I am unsure how Mateusz Gamrot continues to win decisions in fights where he utilizes a grappling-heavy approach and gets outstruck by his opponent. In his two most recent decision wins, he was outlanded and, in my opinion, also absorbed the more meaningful offence. The buck may not necessarily stop here, but I expect dos Anjos to give Gamrot all that he can handle in a close fight.
Dan: CJ Vergara to win by Decision +800 (BetRivers)
Despite a difficult weight cut, Vergara by decision is not out of the realm of possibility here. At these odds it is worth a punt in my opinion. Asu Almabayev has one UFC bout under his belt, an impressive submission win via RNC against Ode’ Osbourne, but Vergara has won three of his last four bouts and is wily enough to go the distance with a rising star. After that, it’s up to the scorecards. Vergara’s experience in deep waters combined with his Fight IQ could swing the scores in his favour.
Mike: Dustin Poirier by submission +1300 (BetRivers)
I mean, are we playing darts or are we playing dart?! There’s no doubt Saint Denis has the momentum and metrics all on his side. It’s also clear the UFC is pushing the rising star from France from a marketing perspective. Poirier, at age 35 and coming off a brutal head kick knockout loss eight months ago, is not supposed to win this fight. If he does, he’s expected to get the KO or win a decision. In fact, the most likely outcome according to the odds is an early submission win for Saint Denis. BSD has said leading up to the event he thinks this fight could be similar to Poirier’s fight with Michael Chandler. He was referring to it possibly also producing the chaos “The Diamond” and “Iron Mike” did…oh and Poirier just happened to win that fight by submission. Locking in a rear-naked choke on a gassed and battered BSD? The dart has been released.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 0-6-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$600
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-6
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $100
Mike’s dart throw record: 2-4-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $900
(Betting odds as of Friday and subject to change prior to fights)