Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The winner of Saturday’s main event between Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba will remain a key figure in the title picture at strawweight. Lemos is only one win removed from her championship loss to reigning 115-pound champ Zhang Weili 11 months ago, while Jandiroba can extend her current winning streak to four with a win over her fellow Brazilian in what will be her first main event.
Saturday’s scheduled co-main event between Brad Tavares and Jun Yong Park was removed from the card following Friday’s weigh-ins after Park was not cleared due to an undisclosed medical issue.
The event will proceed with 11 fights after all competitors scheduled to compete Saturday at the organization’s Apex facility made weight successfully.
Below is updated bout order and complete predictions for UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba:
MAIN CARD
— Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba
— Steve Garcia vs. Choi Seung Woo
— Kurt Holobaugh vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky
— Cody Durden vs. Bruno Gustavo da Silva
— Choi Doo Ho vs. Bill Algeo
— Lee Jeong Yeong vs. Hyder Amil
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Brian Kelleher vs. Cody Gibson
— Miranda Maverick vs. Dione Barbosa
— Loik Radzhabov vs. Trey Ogden
— Luana Carolina vs. Lucie Pudilova
— Mohammed Usman vs. Thomas Petersen
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Carolina vs. Pudilova starts Round 2 -1100 (FanDuel)
Both Carolina and Pudilova are notoriously slow starters who do not have a penchant for finding early finishes. Sign me up for this fight starting the second round for my lock of the evening.
Dan: Dione Barbosa vs. Miranda Maverick starts Round 2 -1000 (FanDuel)
Both fighters have great grappling skills and potential for a submission finish, I just see them cancelling each other out in Round 1. Lock it in and may the best fighter win.
Mike: Miranda Maverick to win outright -215 (BetRivers)
“Mikey The Parlay Saboteur” struck again last week with my lock getting finished in the opening round – not the first time that has happened this year! This week, on a tightly-lined card, I’m going with the biggest moneyline favourite and a fighter I’m a fan of. Even though she is not currently at the level of Erin Blanchfield or Maycee Barber Maverick, two of her past opponents, I still view her as having title contender potential if she puts it all together and she should be able to control this matchup with Barbosa. Any moneyline pick on this card is risky so we may have to sweat this one out.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -118 (to win $84.41)
2024 Record: 10-13 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$327.83
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Luana Carolina -115 (FanDuel)
I expect that much of this fight takes place on the feet and that Carolina is the superior striker. Carolina has done a good job of stuffing takedowns in the past and while Pudilova’s grappling game has evolved, I expect that Carolina is able to keep this fight on the feet and utilize her advantage there to earn a decision victory.
Dan: Mohammed Usman -125 (Caesars)
Usman brings tremendous energy to each fight and will have learned from his UD loss to the battle-tested Mick Parkin last time out. Usman holds a significant reach advantage over Thomas Peterson and this should benefit “The Motor” as both heavyweights step on the gas and empty the take with vicious strikes. If Usman doesn’t land a KO, he should do enough damage to win on cards at the very least.
Mike: Virna Jandiroba -125 (BetWay)
I figured Lemos was going to be the favourite and that I’d be swimming upstream with plus-money value on the Jandiroba side so I’m hesitant taking her as the chalk. This is a clear striker vs. grappler matchup, albeit a high-level one, and I do think the smaller cage at the Apex gives Jandiroba a slight advantage when she decides to initiate grappling exchanges, which fans can expect her to do early and often. Less room to navigate benefits Jandiroba stylistically even though she’ll have to wade into the danger zone to get a hold of her opponent and impose her dominant grappling.
Aaron’s favourite record: 13-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$157.96
Dan’s favourite record: 17-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$483.39
Mike’s favourite record: 15-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$208.15
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Amanda Lemos +114 (DraftKings)
I was shocked when I saw that Lemos was the underdog in this matchup with Virna Jandiroba. Lemos has a takedown defence of just 57 per cent, but that statistic is skewed by her abysmal performance against Zhang Weili, where she ceded six of seven takedown attempts and was on her back for the majority of the fight. Against Mackenzie Dern, she only allowed a single takedown and Dern, like Jandiroba, has a very low takedown accuracy. Lemos will have a major advantage on the feet and as long as she does not get careless, I expect her to win this fight.
Dan: Brian Kelleher +170 (DraftKings)
I actually like a few underdogs on this card…and will most likely pick the wrong one here. But Kelleher’s chances of beating Cody Gibson should not be overlooked. I see no MMA evidence to suggest that Gibson is the clear favourite here. Both guys haven’t won in quite some time but I think Gibson needs this more than Kelleher. With that in mind, Gibson might over think this one in the late stages allowing Kelleher to call on all his experience and pounce on any openings.
Mike: Cody Durden -102 (DraftKings)
While the main event is solid matchmaking, this flyweight bout is the best matchup on Saturday’s entire card in my opinion and the line has flipped this week. Durden is coming off a loss and is now a slight dog to Silva who has looked great his last three outings (all quality finishes) but Durden gets back in the win column this weekend and keeps his spot in the rankings.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-14
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$125
Dan’s underdog record: 6-17
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$965
Mike’s underdog record: 9-14
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$273
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Lemos wins by Round 1 KO/TKO +800 (FanDuel)
Three of Lemos’s eight UFC wins have come in the first round and with Jandiroba’s grappling expertise, I do not believe an early submission is on the table for Lemos. While Jandiroba has never been knocked down in the UFC, Lemos is the all-time strawweight leader for knockdowns and also has the highest knockdown per 15 minutes rate by a large margin. Despite Jandiroba’s statistical durability, that can be overlooked in favour of Lemos being an outlier in her division.
Dan: Bruno Silva by submission +600 (BetRivers)
Mr. Magoo could hit more MMA darts than I can at the moment but for the sake of this column lets go with Bruno Silva by submission. Both he and Cody Durden have been defeated by Tagir Ulanbekov. Durden lost by submission last time out, while Silva lost on scorecards a few years ago. Silva is riding a three-bout win streak that includes a submission finish last time out.
Mike: Hyder Amil to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 +550 (FanDuel)
This card could see plenty of decisions yet this is one of the matchups most likely to end in a finish. Amil is 9-0 with more than half his wins by KO and he’s being undervalued in this spot.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 4-18-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$300
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-22
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,500
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-18-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,500
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)