Championship fights have a way of putting a division under a microscope and Saturday’s middleweight title clash between Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 in Perth, Australia is no different.
The second middleweight title fight of 2024 is many things, including a grudge match between two rivals that have been circling each other for over a year now, and a potential legacy-defining contest for each man.
The South African titleholder is aiming to cement his standing atop the division and Adesanya hopes to claim the throne for a third time while silencing questions about whether he’s still invested to the point that he can compete with the division’s elite.
On top of that, this fascinating pairing also serves as the kick-off to a three-month run of crucial pairings in the 185-pound weight class that could very well reshape the landscape in the division and set a course of how things will line up in 2025.
TWO VERY DIFFERENT PATHS FORWARD
It feels like the middleweight division could head in two very different directions depending on how things shake out in this weekend’s main event.
Should Du Plessis emerge victorious, the division will feel more open and alive than it has in years, as the 30-year-old champion has only previously faced two other members of the top five (Robert Whittaker, Sean Strickland) and rematches with each already have significant appeal.
Additionally, his age and relative newness when it comes to the division and the promotion, all things considered, means that “Stillknocks” will be sticking around the middleweight ranks for the foreseeable future. Whether as champion or challenger, the Team CIT representative should continue to be an integral part of the division’s foundation going forward.
The future feels a little more uncertain if Adesanya were to claim the title again, as “The Last Stylebender” has already vanquished several of the holdover names in the divisional hierarchy, and recently turned 35. On top of that, the most interesting future matchup for him might not even reside in his own division, as a trilogy fight with light heavyweight titleholder and long-time rival Alex Pereira is an ever-intriguing option the UFC could trigger at any moment.
That’s not to suggest that Adesanya would instantly depart the division should he win on Saturday.
A rematch with Strickland, whom UFC CEO Dana White declared as “next in line” earlier in the week is surely appealing given how their initial encounter played out, and a reinvigorated Adesanya may want to set about further solidifying his legacy in the division before potentially running things back with “Poatan” one more time. But beyond a couple fights over a couple years, it’s most challenging to see the City Kickboxing man remaining at the fore of the division three, four, five years down there road, whereas Du Plessis is all but assured of still being in the mix.
JOCKEYING SEASON
While Du Plessis and Adesanya battle for divisional supremacy at RAC Arena this weekend, the next three months features a host of important matchups that will help determine what the pecking order in the 185-pound weight class looks like heading into the final two months of the year.
Here’s a look at some of those contests.
Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho (Aug. 24): Cannonier is a perennial contender coming off a slightly early stoppage loss, while the 31-year-old Borralho has won each of his six UFC appearances and garners his first main event assignment later this month.
Nasourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen (Sept. 28): Imavov bested Cannonier in June to claim his second win of the year and advance into the Top 5 in the divisional rankings, while Allen has posted seven straight wins, with five coming by way of submission.
Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez (Oct. 19): Though stationed at the low-end of the rankings, Pereira and Hernandez are two of the hotter fighters in the division. The Brazilian has gone 3-0 since moving to middleweight, needing three minutes and a tick combined to earn those wins, while “Fluffy” has collected five straight wins, including three straight finishes.
Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Oct. 26): Everyone is hopeful these two will finally face off this time after Chimaev was forced to withdraw from the matchup in June. Whittaker stayed on the card in Saudi Arabia and smoked Ikram Aliskerov to cement his standing as one of the division’s elite, and Chimaev remains unbeaten and a giant question mark on the fringes of title contention.
Other Names to Know in the Division: Joe Pyfer, Bo Nickal, Jack Hermansson, Shara Magomedov
UNDERCARD INTRIGUE IN PERTH
The main event has rightfully and understandably garnered the lion’s share of the attention heading into this weekend’s pay-per-view, but that doesn’t mean the remainder of the card is not without intrigue and excitement.
Here’s a look at a few matchups and competitors that have a chance to capture your attention once the Octagon door closes on Saturday night.
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg: The flyweight co-main event is a critical matchup for each man. Kara-France returns for the first time in 14 months looking to reclaim his place in the hierarchy, while Erceg aims to build off the strong effort he turned in back in May when he pushed champion Alexandre Pantoja to the limit.
Flyweight is poised to have another big run of fights towards the end of the year and into the early stages of 2025, and this one is going to impact how the top names get paired off heading into that period.
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker: Gamrot is the “odd man out” right now at lightweight simply because he’s not established or electric as fellow contenders Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje. But he owns a win over Arman Tsarukyan and is 24-2 (1 NC) for his career and could put himself in the title mix with a big performance this weekend.
Hooker is a savage with a severe allergy to being in boring fights, returning to action for the first time over a year after re-breaking the arm he broke early in his win over Jalin Turner late last year. “The Hangman” is all-action all the time, and will surely be spurred on even more by the partisan crowd in Perth this weekend.
Carlos Prates: A member of last year’s graduating class on Dana White’s Contender Series (DWCS), Prates has already earned a pair of stoppage wins to kick off his UFC tenure, and gets a significant step up in competition as he’s paired off with Li Jingliang in the main card opener.
This is a “see where he stands” fight for the Fighting Nerds representative, who is already 30 years old and could establish himself as a dark horse in the division with a third straight victory inside the distance.
Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos: There was a point where O’Neill was expected to be a championship contender in the flyweight division alongside fellow young stars Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber, but knee surgery and a pair of shaky performance since returning have her in dire need of a win as she returns to Australia this weekend.
Santos is making a quick turnaround, filling in for Tereza Bleda just a month after running through Mariya Agapova in Denver. The 24-year-old Brazilian is 3-0 in the UFC, looked outstanding last time out, and has her previous health issues in check, all of which has her poised to potentially replace O’Neill in the pack of young talents to watch going forward in the 125-pound weight class.
Tom Nolan: At the very least, “Big Train” is going to be a consistently entertaining competitor in the UFC for the next several years, as the lanky lightweight that trains in Brisbane has an aggressive style and a plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal.
He’s still green and needs to work on his defensive fundamentals, but his matchup with Alex Reyes this weekend feels like a showcase opportunity for the promising Australian prospect.