This is what the best off-season in the NBA gets you. This is what it takes to win.
The Boston Celtics are exactly where they thought they would be at the start of the season. Following massive moves to acquire Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday and pairing them with the ever-productive duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, it’s been clear, perhaps more so than any other team in the league, that this is what all-in looks like.
Six Conference Finals appearances in eight years and their second NBA Finals appearance. Only the dynastic Golden State Warriors have more playoff games in the last decade than the Celtics’ 136. But it’s been all for naught with zero titles to their name in that time.
However, this year feels undeniably different.
Boston has looked like the prohibitive favourite all season long, coasting to the best record in the regular season at 64-18 and blissfully skipping and whistling through meadows in the Eastern Conference playoffs, making quick work of the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers with only two losses to their name.
Generally, a run that impressive culminates in a title. Only seven teams since 1970 have gone on to lose the title after picking up two or fewer losses in the run to the NBA Finals, with most simply running into buzzsaw dynasty teams like the 2010s Warriors and Heat or early 2000s Spurs. That likely isn’t what their upcoming opponent, the Dallas Mavericks, project to be.
The Celtics are primed to hoist their 18th championship and first since the 2008 season. They’ve had more than enough tries, enough flops in the Conference Finals, enough tears. It’s time for them to re-establish themselves as the most successful franchise in the NBA. That’s what they’ve been building towards all year. One final test remains.
As Boston gets ready to return to a place all too familiar, here’s a closer look at how they got here and what it’ll take for them to return to the top of the food chain.
NBA Finals Schedule
Game 1: DAL @ BOS, Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Game 2: DAL @ BOS, Sunday, 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Game 3: BOS @ DAL, Wednesday, June 12, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Game 4: BOS @ DAL, Friday, June 14, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
Game 5: DAL @ BOS, Monday, June 17, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT*
Game 6: BOS @ DAL, Thursday, June 20, 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT*
Game 7: DAL @ BOS, Sunday, June 23, 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT*
* If necessary
Season Series: Celtics won 2-0
Jan. 22, 2024: Celtics def. Mavericks 119-110
March 01, 2024: Celtics def. Mavericks 138-110
Regular season record: 64-18 (First in Eastern Conference)
Road to the NBA Finals:
Round 1: Eliminated Miami Heat 4-1
Round 2: Eliminated Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1
Round 3: Eliminated Indiana Pacers 4-0
Why the Boston Celtics can win:
Because they’re supposed to. Every team is generally built with the goal in mind to eventually win a championship, but few have the pieces to do so at the same calibre that the Celtics do.
Their starting five of Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Holiday and Derrick White was one of the best on both ends this regular season, limiting teams to a 52.0 effective field goal percentage (fourth-best among lineups to have played a minimum of 250 minutes) while putting up a 59.5 effective field goal percentage of their own (sixth-best).
Despite debatably easier competition in the East, they haven’t taken their foot off the gas this post-season, putting up the league’s best offensive rating (120.1) and the third-best defensive rating (109.3).
Their offence is predicated on the deep ball, as they shoot a whopping 39.8 3-point attempts per game in the playoffs, good for 47.4 per cent of their shots attempts. Though they’re making only 36.8 per cent of those looks, the sheer volume balances out and has still elevated them to the best true shooting percentage in the playoffs at 60 per cent. When they run five-out sets more effectively than any other team in the sport, the math simply favours them regardless of some unproductive nights from their stars.
That’s how they’re built. Despite their reliance on a certain scheme, their top-heavy depth chart and their complete aversion to the mid-range shot, they’ve found success by just being the absolute best at what they do well. They’re a team built to win. Chalk a block with stars, but more importantly, with stars that fit into the scheme perfectly, filling up whatever holes that may be revealed during a deep playoff run.
Burning question for the Celtics: Can Jayson Tatum prove doubters wrong on the biggest stage?
Much was made of Jayson Tatum’s ability in big games following his less-than-ideal first go at things in the NBA Finals against the Golden State Warriors in 2022.
Though it wasn’t a horrendous six-game set for the then 24-year-old, his 21.5 points came on some brutal efficiency from the field, shooting 36.7 per cent for the series, while turning the ball over 3.8 times a game.
The superstar has been known to sometimes shrink when the lights are brightest, as he also faltered in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat last season, hitting only 23.4 per cent of his 3-point looks.
Boston will need the four-time All-NBA forward to improve on his shortcomings in this second chance at glory, and coming into these Finals against the Mavericks, Tatum seems ready to shoulder that weight.
In the sweep of the Indiana Pacers, he averaged 30.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists. And although he still struggled with his efficiency — shooting 46.3 per cent from the field and 30.6 from 3-point range — he showed important wherewithal to know when to be the driving force or to let partner in crime Jaylen Brown take the reins rather than shoot the team to a loss.
Against the Mavericks, he’ll need to show a similar sense of self, but more importantly, he’ll need to be able to put the team on his back when duty calls. If he wants to get rid of the playoff-shrinker label, cement his status as a top-five player in the NBA and join the legendary list of Celtics icons to lead the team to the Larry O’Brien, this is his chance.
X-Factor: Kristaps Porzingis
The Celtics have fared impeccably well without their star big man in the middle, as Porzingis has been out with a calf strain since Game 4 of their first-round series against the Miami Heat. However, Porzingis is what unlocked this team’s offence in the regular season, as his ability to play in the post and spot up on the perimeter for their five-out offensive sets gives them the multi-dimensionality they need against tougher competition.
Al Horford has fared well in his stead, but the 38-year-old big man has shown his deficiencies with deteriorating foot speed and less willingness to work inside — 69 per cent of his shots have been from beyond the arc in the playoffs.
Porzingis, meanwhile, gives the team a much more varied shot menu using his 75.1 field goal percentage from within three feet to give the Celtics the post-playing element they need while still hitting 37.5 of his 3-point looks and 38.8 per cent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities.
On defence, the Celtics block 5.5 per cent more shots in the playoffs with Porzingis manning the middle and his ability to roam better inside the arc allows for their point-of-attack guys in Holiday and White to work their magic on the perimeter. Their ability to stick to guys like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the upcoming series will be key, and Porzingis gives them more freedom to do just that.
With the quick series’ they’ve had up to now, the Celtics have given Porzingis a chance to fully recover. Let’s see if it’s paid off.