Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
A fourth consecutive UFC main event underwent a short-notice change when Tracy Cortez stepped in to face Rose Namajunas as Maycee Barber’s replacement ahead of Saturday’s Fight Night event set for Ball Arena.
That wasn’t the only bit of drama, however, as Cortez resorted to cutting off some of her own hair in order to make weight ahead of her first UFC main event. Her and Namajunas are set to meet in a five-round flyweight contest in Denver’s high altitude.
The main card also features a co-main event between veteran welterweights Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov plus an anticipated matchup of knockout artists when Denver’s own Drew Dober welcomes Brazil’s Jean Silva to Colorado.
The preliminary card is headlined by a fan-friendly men’s flyweight bout between Joshua Van and Charles Johnson, and it features Canadian Jasmine Jasudavicius welcoming Fatima Kline to the UFC.
Full fight card and picks below:
MAIN CARD
— Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez
— Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
— Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
— Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa
— Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
— Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson
— Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
— Montel Jackson vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
— Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova
— Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
— Evan Elder vs. Darrius Flowers
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Namajunas vs. Cortez starts Round 2 -1600 (FanDuel)
Barring injury, this fight will start the second round. This is a very competitive main event and I would be shocked if we see an early finish.
Dan: Luana Santos to win outright -350 (BetWay)
Luana Santos is 2-0 in the UFC and taking on an opponent that hasn’t been in the Octagon since 2022 and hasn’t won a bout since 2021. That’s enough for me to lock this one in.
Mike: Christian Rodriguez -200 (BetMGM)
Rodriguez’s only pro loss was on short notice to Jonathan Pearce two years ago and the Roufusport product is one of the more legit up-and-comers at 145 pounds. I could see him being somewhat cautious early before his pacing, cardio and striking helps him pull away from Julian Erosa who’s lengthy and dangerous with chokes.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: +105 (to win $105)
2024 Record: 10-12 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$227.83
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Montel Jackson -142 (DraftKings)
Is there a more underrated fighter than Montel Jackson? Jackson has eight knockdowns in his last four fights. That is not a typo. Eight knockdowns in his last four fights as a bantamweight. He has also shown great wrestling ability in his fights in addition to his game changing power. I like him here and believe he carries solid value at this price.
Dan: Rose Namajunas -200 (Bet MGM)
As of writing this on Wednesday, these odds still meet the selection criteria. I wouldn’t be surprised if the odds grow. Rose Namajunas trains in Denver and is used to going 5 rounds. Tracy Cortez is undefeated in the UFC (5-0) but this will be her first 5 round bout at this level. Maybe I’m putting too much stock in fighting at altitude, but I think Namajunas wins this bout regardless of where it takes place.
Mike: Jasmine Jasudavicius -115 (BetMGM)
There’s a reason the line is close to a pick’em despite the fact Fatima Kline is only 23 and taking her first UFC fight on short notice but I’ll be rolling with the Canadian in this one. Jasudavicius had been training to fight on this card so between that and the combo of her size advantage and veteran savvy she has a chance to keep rising up the rankings and build on the momentum generated in a nice win in Toronto earlier this year.
Aaron’s favourite record: 12-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$228.38
Dan’s favourite record: 16-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$433.39
Mike’s favourite record: 14-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$121.19
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Drew Dober +110 (Bet365)
I was very surprised to see that Dober is the underdog against Jean Silva in some spots. Dober is a recently-ranked fighter in one of the toughest divisions in the sport who trains at altitude and has been in training camp for this date. His opponent fought two weeks ago and is now moving up a division on a quick turnaround. I think that even on a level playing field at a normal elevation with both fighters having full, uninterrupted camps that Dober should be favoured, so under these circumstances, I have to take him as an underdog.
Dan: Charles Johnson +205 (BetRivers)
Both fighters come into this matchup on short notice but Charles Johnson has already had two bouts this year and won them both. I expect him to use his significant reach advantage to great effect and defeat Van on scorecards, handing him his first UFC defeat. Van will bounce back and go onto great things, but “InnerG” has looked dialled in so far in 2024.
Mike: Drew Dober +110 (Bet365)
Part of me understands why Jean Silva, a streaking featherweight riding high off a huge KO win at UFC 303, has become the betting favourite over perennial Fight of the Night contender Drew Dober. Silva is younger, hasn’t lost in six years while Dober has lost two of his past three outings and his chin doesn’t seem to be as iron as it once was. Another part of me thinks Dober is the natural lightweight with the harder strength of schedule and will be fighting in front of the home crowd with an opportunity to leapfrog Dustin Poirier and set a new lightweight knockout record. Going against the public on this one just like my favourite.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-13
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$25
Dan’s underdog record: 5-17
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,170
Mike’s underdog record: 9-13
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$173
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Salikhov by Decision +500 (FanDuel)
Muslim Salikhov has seemingly been on the decline of late and having just turned 40 years old, I am not expecting him to have much of a resurgence. But in this fight, against Santiago Ponzinibbio, who also appears to be on the decline, I think that he has a chance to outpoint him in a competitive stand-up affair. “The King of Kung Fu” has had a lot of success in these sort of fights against striking-based fighters and I could see him edging out a close decision.
Dan: Namajunas by TKO/KO +650 (BetRivers)
If you have scrolled this far down you must really want some bad gambling advice…but I sincerely like the probability of a Rose Namajunas KO as a dart throw. Afterall, she has done it before and would give us that storybook ending that MMA events rarely provide.
Mike: Christian Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 2 or 3 +600 (FanDuel)
Doubling down on C-Rod here with seven of Erosa’s 11 losses coming via KO/TKO. I give Rodriguez the first round to figure out how to deal with Erosa’s reach before he starts landing with volume.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 3-18-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$200
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-21
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,400
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-17-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,600
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)