Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
UFC 303 is finally here after all the turbulence of the past month. What was once Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler is now a light-heavyweight championship rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka and a short-notice co-main event with the always entertaining Bran Ortega and rising star Diego Lopes.
Pereira and Prochazka stepped on the scales Friday on championship weight, while Ortega vs. Lopes was changed from a 145-pound matchup to a 155-pound bout because Ortega, who had been planning a move up to lightweight anyways, was having trouble cutting weight.
In addition to those two fights, Ian Machado Garry looks to stay undefeated in MMA when he faces Michael Page in an anticipated welterweight tilt plus three Canadian fighters are among those competing on the preliminary card.
The fellas had a four-event parlay winning snapped last week as Aaron hit his dart throw for a second consecutive event.
Official UFC 303 bout and predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
— Bran Ortega vs. Diego Lopes
— Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze
— Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson
— Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva
— Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
— Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili
— Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri
— Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Gillian Robertson
— Andrei Arlovski vs. Martin Buday
— Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez
— Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Pereira vs. Prochazka ends inside the distance -550 (FanDuel)
With the way that both Pereira and Prochazka fight and with the two fighters accepting on short notice, I expect that this fight does not go to the judges. Both fighters are so opportunistic that one of them should be able to find a finish.
Dan: Robertson vs Waterson-Gomez over 1.5 Rounds -275 (BetWay)
Both fighters will take a methodical approach to this one, likely avoiding significant damage until the business-end of the fight. Over 1.5 in this one is as safe a play as any on the card.
Mike: Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page begins Round 2 -600 (FanDuel)
When you think of how often I’ve been the one to mess up our parlay (Volkov vs. Pavlovich under 2.5 rounds last week was not in fact a lock), it’s entirely possible I’m manifesting a highlight first-round knockout for either fighter. So, on one hand, you’re welcome in advance. On the other, I think style wise this one could start slowly and even runs the risk of generating some boos from the less patient fans in attendance.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -114 (to win $88.01)
2024 Record: 9-12 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$315.84
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Charles Jourdain -115 (DraftKings)
Jourdain and Silva are somewhat similar when it comes to their approach and where their strengths lie. I expect that this fight comes down to the power of Silva versus the speed, volume and accuracy of Jourdain. The Canadian has more ways to win this fight and I believe that more often than not he does.
Dan: Alex Pereira -142 (DraftKings)
I think we are on the verge of witnessing a dominant championship run with Alex Pereira. It was going well for Jiri Prochazka in their previous bout…until it wasn’t. Yes, MMA odds can make fools of us all, but I don’t see why things will play out any different this time around. Chama!
Mike: Gillian Robertson -175 (Bet365)
She looked great in Toronto at UFC 297 and is entering the prime of her career. Waterson-Gomez’s distance management and strength of schedule worry me slightly here but I see Robertson eventually using her slick grappling to get the fight into her world. My galaxy brain pick would be to place a live bet on the Canadian after the first round, which I can see her opponent winning by controlling the action on the feet.
Aaron’s favourite record: 12-9
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$128.38
Dan’s favourite record: 15-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$362.97
Mike’s favourite record: 13-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$64.05
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Anthony Smith +124 (DraftKings)
I was surprised to see Smith open as the underdog in this matchup. He is fighting in his natural weight class, has had more time to prepare and should have an advantage wherever this fight goes. My expectation was that Smith would be a solid favourite, so getting him at plus money makes this an easy pick for me.
Dan: Mayra Bueno Silva +100 (BetWay)
The line on Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson has moved rapidly. But as of writing this, BetRivers has Bueno Silva listed as a slight underdog. I hope my eyes aren’t playing tricks on me, pounce on this before it switches. She took Raquel Pennington through 5 gruelling rounds in Toronto back in January and while the Brazilian came up short in her quest for the title, this should be a bounce back performance.
Mike: Cub Swanson +205 (FanDuel)
WEC for life! This card could be a friendly one for bettors who prefer the dogs and even though Fili is the rightful chalk here, I relish any opportunity to support a former World Extreme Cagefighting veteran. Even though Swanson turns 41 later this year, I expect the respected featherweight to look better on Saturday than he did even in his win over Canadian Hakeem Dawadu last year. Swanson says he feels like a new fighter since undergoing a recent back surgery. This is an awesome matchup and should be on the pay-per-view portion of the card. I see it as mostly even matchup so seeing two-to-one odds, too, I’m rolling with my dog Cub.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-12
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$75
Dan’s underdog record: 5-16
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$970
Mike’s underdog record: 9-12
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$73
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Prochazka by Submission +1300 (FanDuel)
Both Pereira and Prochazka are very dangerous on the feet, but if this fight goes to the ground, I expect that Prochazka will prioritize going for submissions over trying to cause damage with strikes. Pereira’s ground game and takedown defence continues to improve, but I still think that it will be something that Prochazka can exploit if the opportunity arises.
Dan: Arlovski to win by KO/TKO +1000 (BetRivers)
My dart throws are getting embarrassing. Nothing like a little nostalgia to pull you out of a funk! Remember when Hulk Hogan put the red and yellow back on in the early 2000s? Even if it was just for short time, it was awesome. In Vegas on Saturday night, I think another legend turns back the clock. Martin Buday was unceremoniously knocked out in the same arena back in December by Gaziev. Maybe I’m a dreamer but I think Arlovski, with the lights on bright, can find an opening one more time and turn the lights out. He made his UFC debut in November of 2000 when Buday was just eight years old…what a story this would be!
Mike: Ricky Simon to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1 or 2 +550 (FanDuel)
Simon snaps his two-fight losing streak emphatically to kick off the card and set the tone for what should be a fun night of mostly exciting fights.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 3-17-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$100
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-20
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,300
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-16-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,700
(Betting odds above subject to change prior to fights)