Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The heavyweight division gets top billing Saturday at the Apex as No. 8-ranked contender Marcin Tybura looks to hold his spot in the rankings when he takes on No. 9 Serghei Spivac in a rematch 4.5 years in the making.
Tybura defeated Spivac when they met in February of 2020 when Spivac was still young in his career and developing. Tybura has gone 7-2 since that fight, while Spivac is 6-2 since then and looking to bounce back from a loss in his most recent appearance.
Two fights were removed from the card mid-week, two matchups underwent short-notice opponent changes, and three fighters were off the mark at Friday’s weigh-ins.
Despite the trio of misses, all of which resulted in the fighters forfeiting a percentage of their purse, the event is set to proceed with 10 bouts.
Bout order and full predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
— Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal
— Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
— Chris Gutiérrez vs. Quang Le
— Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler
— Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad
— Jhonata Diniz vs. Karl Williams
— Youssef Zalal vs. Jarno Errens
— Stephanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Santos vs. Chandler Over 1.5 rounds -599 (Betway)
While this is the heaviest (active) women’s division in the UFC, neither Santos or Chandler have proven to be potent finishers and I believe that it is unlikely that we see a finish in this fight. If there is a finish, I expect it to be late, so I strongly believe that this fight makes it halfway through the second round.
Dan: Luciano vs. Alencar Over 1.5 -450 (Betway)
An evenly matched strawweight bout between two familiar foes? This one has scorecards written all over it in my opinion. I’m confident this goes over 1.5 rounds in what should be the easiest leg of this parlay.
Mike: Danny Barlow -360 (BetMGM)
The Voice of Reason: Mike, you blew another parlay last week. Shouldn’t you take a safer lock than picking a fighter who missed weight, is coming off a broken arm, and is facing a tough newcomer on short notice?
Mike: Yeah…but Danny Barlow rules.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -122 (to win $82.24)
2024 Record: 12-14 (current streak: L1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$265.10
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Yana Santos -138 (Betway)
In addition to the Santos and Chandler fight going into the later rounds, I expect that Santos wins the fight if it does. Santos will have a marked speed advantage and Chandler does not possess the sort of long range weapons that have given Santos problems in the past. I expect that the speed and precision of Santos as well as her well-roundedness allows her to win this fight more often than not.
Dan: Yana Santos -138 (Betway)
I’m with Aaron on this one. I’m not comfortable with any other favourites on this card that meet the criteria this week.
Mike: Serghei Spivac -162 (DraftKings)
Maybe I’m a sucker here considering how one-sided his first fight with Tybura was, plus the fact Spivac landed 99 fewer strikes than Ciryl Gane before being finished in his last fight, but I just think Spivac has closed the gap significantly skill-wise since the first fight. There is a reason he is the chalk pick here and not the more seasoned fighter who’s coming off a win and holds a previous dominant win over his opponent. Let’s hope Spivac is conditioned for a five-rounder.
Aaron’s favourite record: 15-11
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$112.18
Dan’s favourite record: 18-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$343.63.
Mike’s favourite record: 16-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$88.15
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Marcin Tybura +140 (Betway)
The line for this main event confuses me because the last time these two faced off Tybura won 30-27 on two scorecards. While Spivac has improved since then, I do not believe that Tybura has regressed enough to the point where he is an underdog against a fighter who he beat soundly in their last meeting. I expect this fight to enter the later rounds and for Tybura to utilize his grappling advantage by exhausting Spivac and either find a late finish or win a decision.
Dan: Jhonata Diniz +178 (Bodog)
I think Diniz is going to be a problem in the heavyweight division. Karl Williams will be his toughest test to date, but Diniz’s striking power could be the difference here. If he can avoid getting tied up with Williams for three rounds, there could be an upset here.
Mike: Jhonata Diniz +178 (Bodog)
The odds of Williams grappling his way to a win are overwhelming but I don’t love the board for this chalky card and Diniz has some high-level striking. Hopefully his defensive grappling has improved enough to give him a few opportunities each round to inflict some damage. The more clinching there is the less likely Diniz is to emerge victorious.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-17
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$425
Dan’s underdog record: 7-19
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,055
Mike’s underdog record: 10-16
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$363
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Zalal by KO/TKO +800 (BetOnline)
While Zalal has not won many of his fights by knockout, he has shown a lot of improvement on the feet and I also believe that if he takes this fight to the ground that a knockout will be live for him. He is a large favourite over Jarno Errens and I have noticed a trend where big favourites have won fights by a less likely method because they have such a strong advantage overall. That could very well be the case here.
Dan: Barlow vs. Veretennikov ends in Round 3 +540 (BetRivers)
Someone is likely getting knocked out in this one, but what’s to say this can’t go to Round 3? At +540 odds this is worth a shot.
Mike: Danny Barlow KO/TKO & Round 2 +550 (BetRivers)
Doubling down on Danny B here and saying he improves to 9-0 after finding his groove in the second. This one is expected to end early.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 4-21-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: $0
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-25
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,800
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-20-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$1,850
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)