Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
There is plenty of unfinished business heading into UFC 304, the organization’s anticipated return to Manchester, England, with both the main and co-main events being rematches of fights that ended unceremoniously earlier this decade.
Welterweight champion Leon Edwards is set to defend his title against Belal Muhammad three years after their no-contest, while interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall hopes to avenge a previous loss to Curtis Blaydes that occurred due to a fluke injury he sustained 15 seconds into their first meeting.
The stacked card boasts plenty of British talent with popular Liverpool lightweight Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett taking on Bobby “King” Green and featherweight contender Arnold Allen of Ipswich looks to snap a two-fight skid when he fights Giga Chikadze on the main card.
The televised prelims feature four former Cage Warriors champions: Nathaniel Wood (vs. Daniel Pineda), Molly McCann (vs. Bruna Brasil) and both Jake Hadley and Caolan Loughran who face each other.
A grudge match in the flyweight division between Muhammad Mokaev Manel Kape is another one to watch and the most notable fight on the early prelims. The two 125-pound contenders got into a physical altercation at the fighter hotel late Thursday and were immediately separated at Friday’s ceremonial weigh-ins. The winner of that contest could potentially earn the next title shot against Alexandre Pantoja.
Our brave trio of bettors got back in the win column with a three-leg parlay hit at last week’s Fight Night and Mikey nailed his fifth dart throw longshot of the year thanks to Hyder Amil going supersonic in the first round at the Apex.
The complete UFC 304 bout order and predictions are below.
MAIN CARD
— Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
— Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
— Bobby “King” Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
— Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
— Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
— Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil
— Jake Hadley vs. Caolan Loughran
— Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
— Oban Elliott vs. Preston Parsons
— Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
— Sam Patterson vs. Kiefer Crosbie
— Mick Parkin vs. Lukasz Brzeski
— Shauna Bannon vs. Alice Ardelean
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Aspinall vs. Blaydes under 4.5 rounds -750 (Bovada)
Tom Aspinall has not had a fight reach the third round in his 17 career fights and I don’t expect him to here, so if we are looking for a “lock” I don’t think this fight reaches halfway through the fifth round.
Dan: Alice Ardelan vs. Shauna Bannon Starts Round 2 -650 (FanDuel)
If you’re looking for a lock to add to a parlay then this is it. These two strawweight are evenly matched and this bout has scorecards written all over it…so surely it goes past Round 1and you can sweat on the other legs of the parlay.
Mike: Mick Parkin to win outright -275 (Bet365)
These odds are likely to get shorter as as we get closer to the fights so I’m happy to lock in Parkin at this number. He is undefeated and a training partner of Tom Aspinall. He is both the bigger and more skilled fighter in this matchup. Little bonus pick for your personal prop boards: I also think Parkin is live for a KO/TKO finish in this one which has some decent value.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -128 (to win: $78.32)
2024 Record: 11-13 (current streak: W1)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$243.42
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Shauna Bannon -170 (BetOnline)
This is a pure fade against Alice Ardelean, who takes this fight on short notice. Ardelean’s last four opponents, which make up her resume over the last four years have a combined 5-8 record. It is pretty incredible that she is getting this opportunity and while Bannon has plenty of room for growth, I would frankly be shocked if she lost.
Dan: Caolan Laughrin -200 (BetMGM)
I think Caolan Laughrin has what it takes to defeat Jake Hadley in any setting regardless of who the crowd backs here. Once the bout starts all that matters is the two athletes, so I’m a little surprised these -200 odds are just sitting there. I’m pouncing on this one before it’s too late.
Mike: Prestons Parsons -138 (BetWay)
Is this a fun pick or one of the more anticipated matchups of the prelims? No, but this card is quite chalky so it’s slim pickings for faves under our criteria. Parsons is the favourite with the best value in my mind with the clearly better strength of schedule and not much momentum heading into what is essentially a road game. I think the American snaps Oban Elliot’s six-fight winning streak while overseas.
Aaron’s favourite record: 14-10
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$71
Dan’s favourite record: 17-7
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$383.39
Mike’s favourite record: 16-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$288.15
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Manel Kape +145 (DraftKings)
Muhammad Mokaev has utilized his grappling to ascend the flyweight rankings, but Kape will have many advantages in this fight. His power on the feet have made him a force in this division and with a scoring criteria that values that over the mostly control-based grappling of Mokaev, I think that he has more paths to victory in this fight.
Dan: Paddy Pimblett +110 (DraftKings)
Pimblett is a rising star and while King Green is 1-1 in his last two bouts. Green bounced back from a nasty KO loss to Jalin Turner back in December by defeating Jim Miller at UFC 300 by UD. I’m using some recency bias coupled with a home crowd advantage to go with the underdog on this one as Pimblett makes the climb to the Top 15 of the lightweight division.
Mike: Paddy Pimblett +110 (DraftKings)
There are plenty of decent parlay pieces at UFC 304, although every betting underdog on the main card is a live dog on Saturday in my opinion – even the two title challengers – but the one fight during which I think the crowd will have the biggest impact is Green vs. Pimblett. If the popular scouser doesn’t leave his chin exposed like he has at times in the past, I like his chances to pick up what’ll be the biggest and most impressive win, on paper, so far in his pro career. Pimblett is an excellent back-taker with some decent pop to his punches and the fans constantly chanting “Oh! Paddy The Baddy!” over and over should create quite the atmosphere – an atmosphere that could tilt the scorecards in Pimblett’s favour if it’s competitive and goes the full 15 minutes.
Aaron’s underdog record: 9-15
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$225
Dan’s underdog record: 6-18
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,065
Mike’s underdog record: 9-15
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$373
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Rodrigues by submission +625 (BetOnline)
In most fights, “Robocop” Gregory Rodrigues is happy to play with his opponent on the feet, but against Christian Leroy Duncan, his absolute best winning conditions come on the ground. He has always had strong grappling in his back pocket and I think that he would be wise to utilize it in this matchup.
Dan: Curtis Blaydes by TKO/KO +550 (FanDuel)
With this being a five-rounder, it’s almost a given that someone is getting knocked out in this one. So because I am picking it as my dart throw in this column it likely wont happen. Blaydes has defeated Aspinall before in England. Say what you want about the finish of their previous bout, but if there is anyone that will be unphased by the one-sided U.K. crowd it’s Curtis Blaydes.
Mike: Arnold Allen by submission +850 (BetRivers)
First of all, shout-out Hyder Amil for cashing that dart last week. Nothing puts an exclamation mark on a winning bet like a 38-strike combination. Plenty of dart options to like at UFC 304 and if Allen vs. Chikadze ends up not requiring the scorecards there is a lot of value to be had on both sides. Chikadze’s strength is kickboxing and while I think Arnold can win this fight anywhere, I see him having a clear advantage grappling despite only having two submission wins in the UFC. Unless he feels like exclusively brawling in front of his fellow Brits, don’t be too surprised if Arnold attacks a neck at some point and goes for the sub.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 4-19-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$200
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-23
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,600
Mike’s dart throw record: 5-18-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,050
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)