For the second straight year, the Tampa Bay Lightning saw their season end in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the front office has already been busy trying to reshape the roster.

The Lightning cleared over $11 million in cap space by trading Mikhail Sergachev and Tanner Jeannot at the draft, then promptly spent a large chunk of those savings on scoring winger Jake Guentzel after a trade with the Hurricanes.

But what does all of that mean for Steven Stamkos?

It’s hard not to look at how the Lightning and Stamkos found themselves in this position. The 34-year-old made it clear back before the season began that he wasn’t thrilled about not being in the team’s long-term plans. 

“To be honest, I’m disappointed in the lack of talk in that regard,” Stamkos said as Lightning players reported for the start of training camp. “It was something that I expressed at the end of last year that I wanted to get something done before training camp started.”

With free agency quickly approaching it’s now up to Stamkos to decide what comes next for him as he enters free agency for the first time. The 16-year veteran will have some options to consider, especially after another productive season where he scored 40 goals and 81 points in 79 games and led the Lightning with five goals in their first-round series against the Florida Panthers. 

Here is a look at the top destinations and fits for Stamkos in free agency. 

Tampa Bay Lightning
Projected cap space: $16.5 million
Players signed for next season: 16

The Lightning have been in this position before with Stamkos but unlike the last time he was a free agent in 2016 the team’s priorities have certainly changed.

General manager Julien BriseBois said he met with Stamkos’ agent Don Meehan to see if there was a chance to work out a deal but this time around, the captain is willing to see what’s on the market. 

“We’re both going to go ahead and follow through with our due diligence, seeing what’s out there and seeing what’s best,” BriseBois said following the conclusion of the draft on Saturday. “My responsibility is to see what’s best for the Lightning organization, and Steven has to do what’s best for him, his career and his family. So, unless something changes between now and July 1 — and it doesn’t look like it will — we will get to July 1.”

Tampa Bay has been busy the past couple of off-seasons ensuring the team’s core is locked up long-term, including long-term deals for goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy and defencemen Erik Cernak along with forwards Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. The real question is where does Stamkos fit into the Lightning’s long-term plan, and can they make room for him on the salary cap?

Tampa Bay made the tough decision to trade away Sergachev and Jeannot in order to open up some cap space but it appears that Stamkos’ contract was not really part of the plan.

What changed things was how realistic the Lightning’s chances were to get Guentzel before he could hit the open market.

“Sources indicate that the Tampa Bay Lighting and Jake Guentzel have agreed to terms on a seven-year contract. Not pen to paper yet, certainly not a contract that has been registered with the NHL and the Lightning have been keeping some of the details really close to the vest,” DailyFaceoff’s Frank Seravalli said on Sportsnet Central Sunday night. “What is the AAV? I believe it’s going to be in the $9 million range give or take a little bit when it comes to the final details. But I think part of the reason why they haven’t revealed or have been so cautious about revealing some of those details is because they’re still grinding on Steven Stamkos. I think there’s still some hope on their part, I think there’s still some hope on the part of Steven Stamkos and his camp that they can find a way to work something out.”

The Lighting have 16 players under contract next season and just over $16.5 million but that doesn’t factor in Guentzel’s deal (around $9 million AAV) which could mean they would only have about $7.5 million in space to fill out the rest of the roster and get a Stamkos deal done. They might have to make some moves in order to get more flexibility but again that’s assuming they can get Stamkos to take a pay cut.  

Another factor the Lightning need to consider is Victor Hedman’s pending UFA status in 2025 and it looks like a deal could be announced as soon as July 1. 

As crucial as Stamkos has been to the Lightning’s success, Hedman’s importance to the team can’t be overlooked and for Tampa’s sake, it would be tough to not only lose one but both in back-to-back off-seasons.

Detroit Red Wings
Projected cap space: $28.7 million
Players signed for next season: 13

If there is a person who might be capable of luring Stamkos away from Tampa Bay, it’s the man who was the architect for many of Tampa Bay’s best seasons.

Steve Yzerman was also the general manager when Stamkos decided to stay with the Lightning in 2016. Yzerman knows what Stamkos brings to the table and the Red Wings could certainly use a scorer in a big way.

Yzerman made a big push to get Alex DeBrincat last off-season in order to bolster Detroit’s offence, but he wasn’t able to get back to being the 41-goal scorer that he was during his time in Chicago.

When the Red Wings were without captain Dylan Larkin because of an injury, the rest of the team struggled in his absence, which not only suggests a need to address the team’s offensive depth but also a glaring need to add some leadership.

What could make a push for Stamkos complicated is the Red Wings need to make improvements to the blue line and between the pipes. Yzerman has already shed $3.4 million after trading Jake Walman to the San Jose Sharks.

They also made the decision to bring back Patrick Kane to a one-year deal at $4 million but that could be worth $6.5 million if Kane meets the performance bonuses in his contract. However, the $1.5 million in bonuses could be moved to next year’s cap.

The Red Wings could also look to move off a defender like Justin Holl in order to gain some roster flexibility, but his $3.4 million cap hit might be tough to move out, especially after sending a second-round pick in the Walman trade. Even Ville Husso’s $4.75 million cap hit looks like a boat anchor deal that could be addressed with a trade.

While the team has an abundance of cap space, Yzerman and company have some heavy lifting to do with contract extensions needed for two key players in Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond. If they can try to move some players out to add some flexibility, Detroit should consider themselves a prime destination for Stamkos.

Montreal Canadiens
Projected cap space: $20.68 million with LTIR moves
Players signed for next season: 18

If there is a chance that Stamkos hits the open market, Kent Hughes and company should be one of the first teams to call Stamkos’ agent for a meeting with the perennial goalscorer. 

There are several areas Stamkos would help improve this Canadiens team including their below-average power play, which was the 26th-ranked unit in the league at 17.5 per cent. Montreal is also in need of more goal scoring with Nick Suzuki leading the team with 33 goals this season and only three players putting up 20 or more goals. 

Of course, the Canadiens also have a major asset within the organization who could help the team persuade Stamkos to consider Montreal in head coach Martin St. Louis. It’s no secret that St. Louis is someone Stamkos has a lot of respect for from their time together in Tampa Bay. 

The Canadiens could have roughly $20.68 million in cap space once they place Carey Price on long-term injured reserve which should be enough for the team to consider taking a swing at Stamkos and make other moves. Some will wonder if it would be the right move for a team like the Canadiens to make a play for a high-priced free agent while they are in a rebuild, but at some point Montreal will have to make a push to return to the playoffs. 

Nashville Predators
Projected cap space: $26.35 million
Players signed for next season: 15

Just when it looked like the Predators were going to take a step back with general manager Barry Trotz in charge, they were a surprise team that went on a big second-half run to secure a wild-card spot. There are still glaring problems on this roster and that was made clear with some of the players they added at the trade deadline in Jason Zucker and Anthony Beauvillier. 

While some might be concerned about Stamkos’ age and injury history when it comes to making a sizeable commitment to him in free agency, the Predators are in a position where they need to add a premium goalscorer. 

Filip Forsberg had a career year where he put up 48 goals and 94 points but the next-highest goal-scorer on the team was Ryan O’Reilly with 26. This is a team that has been trying to turn a new leaf offensively after buying out Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen last off-season and it’s going to be tough for them to rely on Gustav Nyquist to replicate his production after scoring 23 goals and a whopping 75 points when he had never had more than 60 points in a single season before. 

In the playoffs, the Predators were relying on goal-scoring by committee with Forsberg leading the way at two goals, so having a player like Stamkos who had five through five games would be a welcomed addition.

Looking at their cap structure for next season, the Predators don’t have any big-name free agents to worry about. They are closing in on an extension for Juuse Saros but that deal doesn’t kick in until the 2024-25 season.

There is no doubt Stamkos could help this Predators team not just with his ability to put the puck in the net but also add another leader to the fold.

A darkhorse destination… Toronto Maple Leafs
Projected cap space: $12.080 million
Players signed for next season: 18

The Toronto Maple Leafs made a push to go after Stamkos before, maybe they can get it done the second time around? 

Obviously, the Leafs have several needs to consider this off-season after losing out in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs yet again. They will have a decision to make on how they proceed with their goaltending position and the blue line is in need of a hefty revamp. 

Of course, the pending decisions on what the team does with John Tavares and Mitch Marner, who both have one year left on their deals, will also play a big part in how they navigate free agency. Bringing back Max Domi on a four-year, $3.75 million deal makes it tough to see Tyler Bertuzzi return as well.

In Toronto’s case there is only so much cap space that can be dedicated to free agents, especially with the amount of money they already have tied up with their core.

The Leafs are also going to consider a big push towards a couple of defencemen in free agency and have been grinding away on a deal with Chris Tanev after acquiring his rights.

At the same time, this season exposed a glaring issue with the Leafs’ inability to put pucks in the net, especially on the power play in the playoffs which was one of the reasons they couldn’t get past the Boston Bruins. If the Leafs were to consider going in a different direction, Stamkos’ resume would be tough to ignore.

Even if Toronto were to find a way to move out some money, some would question if going after Stamkos is the right choice given the money would be better spent on addressing the other issues listed above. However, Stamkos could see an opportunity to add to his Hall-of-Fame career and play with a team that he’s battled against many times before.

But, it’s hard to ask a player capable of scoring 40-plus goals to take a discount in a place that doesn’t also have the same tax-free benefits as Tampa and other teams likely to line up with better offers.