Part of the fun of NHL free agency is seeing which teams hand out instantly regrettable contracts. Here are five players who could cause a serious case of buyer’s remorse.
All contract projections are courtesy of AFP Analytics.
T.J. Brodie
Position: Right defence
Previous team: Toronto Maple Leafs
Contract projection: Two years, approximately $3.7 million annual cap hit
Once a fixture on the Maple Leafs’ top defence pair, Brodie lost his spot in the lineup by the end of the season, appearing in only one of the team’s seven first-round playoff games.
Many of Brodie’s defensive metrics took a tumble this season. His turnover rate in the defensive zone increased from 11.3 per cent last season to 13.4 per cent. After denying 52.3 per cent of controlled entries last season, he stopped 48.6 per cent this season.
Regarded as one of the league’s best defensive defencemen as recently as a year ago, Brodie has too many red flags.
Elias Lindholm
Position: Centre
Previous team: Vancouver Canucks
Contract projection: Five years, approximately $6.8 million annual cap hit
This year’s crop of free-agent centres lacks star power, which bodes well for Lindholm’s bank account. It is possible Lindholm gets paid like a No. 1 centre, which he has not been for a few years.
Since losing Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk on his wings after the 2021-22 season, Lindholm has become less and less of a needle-mover. He ranked 107th this season in offence-generating plays per 20 minutes out of 391 forwards who played at least 500 minutes. That is down from two years ago, when he was 61st out of 402 qualified forwards in the same category.
In simple terms, Lindholm has not been doing much to help his team score goals, which is part of being a highly paid centre. (Lindholm had 23 points at 5-on-5 in 75 games this past season — the same amount as Canucks teammate Teddy Blueger, who just signed a two-year contract with a $1.8 million annual cap hit.)
Anthony Mantha
Position: Right wing
Previous team: Vegas Golden Knights
Contract projection: Three years, approximately $4.8 million annual cap hit
Mantha has the tools to be an impactful offensive player, but is frustratingly inconsistent. Case in point: Mantha, who had 20 goals in 56 games with the Washington Capitals before being traded at the deadline, finished with three goals in 21 regular-season and playoff games with the Golden Knights. He was scratched in four of Vegas’ seven post-season games.
Mantha’s true shooting percentage, which accounts for all shot attempts, plummeted from 13.1 per cent with the Capitals to 5.7 per cent with the Golden Knights in the regular season (4.9 per cent when including the playoffs). If Mantha is not scoring, he provides little else.
Ilya Samsonov
Position: Goaltender
Previous team: Toronto Maple Leafs
Contract projection: One year, approximately $2.3 million annual cap hit
Samsonov had a whirlwind season. The Maple Leafs waived their opening-night starter early in the year after he allowed 18 goals above expected (1.36 per 60 minutes) through 15 games. Samsonov bounced back down the stretch, going 18-3-1 with a 2.43 goals-against average and .915 save percentage. But he faltered in the playoffs, losing the net to Joseph Woll.
That kind of volatility makes it hard to trust Samsonov. At 27, he is still young enough to find a groove, but the team that signs him better have a backup plan.
Nikita Zadorov
Position: Left defence
Previous team: Vancouver Canucks
Contract projection: Five years, approximately $5.3 million annual cap hit
The monstrous defender did exactly what a player on an expiring deal should do: elevate his game in the playoffs. Zadorov made his presence felt over two rounds, recording eight points and averaging 20:09 of ice time per game — up from 17:04 in 54 games with the Canucks following an early-season trade from the Calgary Flames.
It is important, however, to keep things in perspective. Zadorov is not a natural point producer (career 0.23 per game average over 11 seasons) and is probably best suited for the type of third-pairing role he played for the Canucks.
General managers go gaga for the size (6-foot-6, 248 pounds) and snarl that Zadorov possesses. He is bound to be overpaid.
All numbers via Sportlogiq
As the NHL free agency period approaches, teams are gearing up to make moves to improve their rosters for the upcoming season. However, not all unrestricted free agents (UFAs) are worth the hefty price tag that comes with signing them. Here are five UFAs that buyers should be cautious of overpaying for:
1. Zach Hyman – While Hyman is a solid forward who can contribute offensively and defensively, his age and injury history should give teams pause before offering him a big contract. At 29 years old, Hyman may not have many peak years left in him, and his style of play could lead to more wear and tear on his body.
2. Dougie Hamilton – Hamilton is one of the top defensemen available in free agency, but his asking price may be too high for what he brings to the table. While he is a strong offensive contributor, his defensive play has been inconsistent at times, and teams should be wary of committing a long-term, high-dollar contract to him.
3. Blake Coleman – Coleman is coming off a Stanley Cup win with the Tampa Bay Lightning, which could drive up his asking price on the open market. However, teams should be cautious of overpaying for a player who may have benefited from playing on a stacked roster and may not be able to replicate his success elsewhere.
4. Ryan Getzlaf – Getzlaf is a veteran center who has had a successful career with the Anaheim Ducks, but at 36 years old, his best days are likely behind him. Teams should be cautious of offering him a big contract based on past performance, as age and declining production could be factors in the near future.
5. Tuukka Rask – Rask is a proven goaltender who has had success with the Boston Bruins, but his recent injury history and age (34) should give teams pause before offering him a lucrative contract. Goaltenders tend to decline in performance as they get older, and teams should be cautious of overpaying for Rask based on past accomplishments.
In conclusion, while these UFAs may have had success in the past, buyers should be cautious of overpaying for them based on age, injury history, or potential decline in performance. It’s important for teams to carefully evaluate the value that each player brings to their roster before committing to a big contract in free agency.