There’s always a ‘next one.’

Every year the first overall pick at the NHL Draft immediately will get compared to other first-round selections from previous drafts. Usually, those comparisons start well before the player’s name is called. I understand fans getting excited about their team winning the draft lottery and the opportunity they have to immediately add an elite prospect to their organization. The reality, however, is that not every first overall pick has the same impact. Some settle into the NHL level quickly, while others take several years to develop in the hardest hockey league in the world.

This year’s consensus top prospect is Macklin Celebrini from Boston University. The explosive forward is NHL ready, he’s uber-competitive, detailed in all three zones, plenty strong in battle areas, and a game breaker on offence.

My goal today is to attempt to describe what stands out in Celebrini’s game compared to the previous four first overall NHL picks.

2020-2023: THE OTHER TOP PICKS

To start, here’s the list of players who were selected first overall in the previous four drafts:

And now I’ll share what my final scouting reports on each of those players in the run up to their draft looked like. Note the verbiage and forecasted NHL role for them:

2023: Connor Bedard

Bedard has solidified his hold on the No. 1 ranking for 2023. It’s never really been in doubt. He’s by far the consensus No. 1 prospect. Bedard is an elite talent who’s mature beyond his years. He possesses a lethal release and shoots the puck with incredible accuracy from all angles in the offensive zone. His vision is also the most dynamic in the draft class. Bedard has the IQ to be used on the penalty-kill, but I don’t envision him being deployed in that role at the NHL level. He picks opponents apart from the perimeter and atop of the offensive zone on the power-play.

NHL Projection: Franchise Player

2022: Juraj Slafkovsky

There have been moments in Slafkovsky’s development where he has produced offence and scored goals in streaks. He excelled playing against his own age group and ended the season on a hot streak playing for TPS Turku in Finland’s Liiga. His showing at the men’s world championships was outstanding. Slafkovsky is a huge human. He has a power forward frame. He’s very difficult to defend when he boxes out opponents around the crease, or walks from the corners to the net with the puck on his stick. He’s a sound skater who, on occasion, has shown he has a gear to be a threat off the rush. His three-zone detail and awareness is generally reliable. Slafkovsky will add a dimension to the team that selects him at the draft. He won’t be an exceptionally elite scorer, but he will contribute his share of offence and add a power element to the forward group.

NHL Projection: Top-six, potentially top-line power forward. Better than secondary offence.

2021: Owen Power

Power is a complete player and future top pairing defenceman at the NHL level. He could end up being a franchise player. Power has the size, mobility, and hockey sense to be used in all situations. He will likely log between 23-25 minutes per game. Power can lead the rush on his own or join as an extra layer off the puck. He leans distributor more than shooter. On the penalty-kill he’s quick to take away space and uses his long reach to his advantage. Power leans on opponents. He will play a heavy game at times, but it’s not a consistent element in his game.

NHL Projection: Top pairing defenceman. Deployed in all situations.

2020: Alexis Lafreniere

Lafreniere has the potential to bring a mix of power and finesse at the NHL level. He isn’t a pure burner in open ice, but when he gets the edge or inside his check in the defensive zone, he’s difficult to defend. Lafreniere leans shooter more than natural playmaker. His statistics at the junior level jump off the page offensively, but there are some nights he appears to have even more to give. Lafreniere might need more time than some prospects to arrive at this identity in the NHL, but when he does he has the skill, and the will, on his best shifts to impact the game at a high level offensively. The bulk of his ice time will likely always come at even strength and the power play. He’s an average player defensively at this stage of his development.

NHL Projection: Top six forward, potentially top line in time. Goal scorer.

FAST FORWARD TO TODAY…

On balance, this group has pretty much played to their identities early in their careers.

It’s always more difficult for a defenceman to enter the NHL and log heavy minutes because they tend to be more exposed than forwards. Power has had some inconsistent results at times, and the Sabres continue to retool their roster. He won’t likely become the best version of himself for at least another season.

As the Blackhawks improve, expect Bedard’s plus-minus, even strength scoring, and shots on goal total to improve exponentially.

Lafreniere has been an interesting prospect so far. He’s inching closer to maximizing his offensive element at the NHL level. His defensive zone, and off the puck detail, remain a work in progress but his average time on ice has increased every year in the league.

Slafkovsky hit the 20-goal mark in his second season and his average time on ice jumped by over five minutes per game. I was especially pleased to see his spatial awareness improve on the smaller ice surface in North America. There were times in his rookie season when he exposed himself too much and was on the receiving end of some massive bodychecks.

COMPARING CELEBRINI TO THIS GROUP

Here’s my year-end scouting report on Macklin Celebrini. You can click on the card to flip it over and read my final report:

I truly believe Celebrini is a future franchise player in the NHL. Compared to the four first overall picks who came before him, Celebrini’s upside eclipses everyone’s except for Bedard.

Here are some clips to show you what makes me such a believer in Celebrini:

SETTING THE TONE

The following clip is from early this season. The hype surrounding Celebrini was palpable to start the year. Everyone was aware of his potential impact offensively, but I was very impressed with the effort he showed after turning the puck over high in the zone in this game versus Bentley University.

Ask yourself: How many high-end skilled players, at any level, have a habit of occasionally turning pucks over in high danger areas and then don’t work this hard to make sure the puck stays out of their own net? It’s an example of how much Celebrini cares about the way he plays the game. If he makes a mistake he works to win the puck back.

200 FOOT GAME

Celebrini has been compared to Jonathan Toews with the way he approaches his craft. Toews always led by example. He didn’t cut corners and he provided offence without sacrificing defence.

The following clip is an example of how Celebrini surveys a play is breaking down in his defensive zone. He backtracks to support his defenceman, and eventually ends up with the puck on his stick to launch an attack the other way.

After making a rink-wide outlet to start the sequence he joins the rush late, finds open space, receives the drop pass and cuts back before going bar down. This is an elite sequence. Celebrini touches all three zones of the ice, twice, before scoring.

HIGHLIGHT REEL

Star players make incredible plays look routine. The following is an example of a play that will take NHL fans out of their seats in the very near future.

Celebrini is always around the play and, importantly, he makes sure he protects the house before going on offence. He started this sequence net front in his own zone before eventually heading north. The Minnesota defender makes a soft chip to the neutral zone that Celebrini pounces on. His skill and vision take over and the puck ends up in Minnesota’s net.

CONFIDENT CONCLUSION

Some elite prospects cut the ice in half. Sure, they impact the scoreboard with goals and assists, but they also leave much to be desired defensively. Their elite element comes at a cost in relation to the team game.

Macklin Celebrini, however, is an ideal prospect to build an NHL team around. He leads by example with his 200-foot detail and effort, plays fast, brings consistently relentless compete and makes plays many prospects only dream of making.

Celebrini’s a future star in the NHL. It’s my projection he will compete with Connor Bedard for headlines as their NHL teams rebuild and eventually become playoff contending outfits.