Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
The UFC lands in Louisville for the first time since 2011 when middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov look to make a statement in the packed 185-pound division.
The 14-fight card from the KFC Yum! Center also features a co-main event between 205-pound strikers Dominick Reyes and Dustin Jacoby, plus teenage phenom Raul Rosas Jr. faces his toughest test to date of his pro career when he meets The Ultimate Fighter 29 winner Ricky Turcios in bantamweight action, and Canadian Brad Katona looks to get back in the win column in a featured preliminary bout.
Several fighters scheduled to compete missed weight Friday on their first attempts. Strawweight Denise Gomes, flyweight Montana De La Rosa, bantamweight Brad Katona and Punahele Soriano ahead of his welterweight debut all initially missed by a half pound or less.
Gomes’s opponent, Eduarda Moura, was the only fighter to miss weight and not make weight on a second attempt. She will be fined 20 per cent of her purse and the fight will go on.
Fight card and projected bout order below.
MAIN CARD
— Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov
— Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby
— Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
— Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
— Julian Marquez vs. Zachary Reece
— Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Thiago Moisés vs. Ludovit Klein
— Charles Radtke vs. Carlos Prates
— Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa
— Brad Katona vs. Jesse Butler
— John Castaneda vs. Daniel Marcos
— Eduarda Moura vs. Denise Gomes
— Cody Stamann vs. Taylor Lapilus
— Rayanne dos Santos vs. Puja Tomar
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CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Lee vs. De La Rosa Starts Round 2 -1150 (FanDuel)
Of their 23 combined fights, only one has not seen the second round and that was De La Rosa’s win over Christina Marks, who was 8-8 at the time, in her lone UFC fight. I am very confident that this fight sees the scorecards, so starting the second round is extremely likely.
Dan: Denise Gomes vs Eduarda Moura over 1.5 rounds -220 (Bodog)
If Gomes can withstand Moura’s striking power, this should go over 1.5 rounds. History tells us that Gomes is more than capable of doing that and perhaps even upsetting the odds here. But at this number, lock this one in and enjoy the fight.
Mike: Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios Starts Round 2 -410 (FanDuel)
I don’t see Rosas getting a quick sub over Turcios, who is not known as a quick finisher himself. Either one of these bantamweights could find a stoppage but if it happens it’s more likely to occur in the second half of the fight.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -103 (to win $96.66)
2024 Record: 7-11 (current streak: W2)
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$383.21
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Andrea Lee -150 (FanDuel)
This is a rematch that I can see playing out very similarly to the original. De La Rosa has the wrestling advantage and should be able to find some success in that regard, but Lee’s potent striking and volume should offset that for as long as the fight takes place on the feet.
Dan: Daniel Marcos -115 (Betway)
I thought Marcos was cruising to victory in his last bout vs. Aoriqileng until an accidental groin strike (one of three in Round 2) led to a no contest. Marcos had an MMA record of 15-0 prior to that fight and looks fundamentally sound. John Castaneda might struggle to deal with Marcos’ methodical approach and barrage of leg kicks.
Mike: Nassourdine Imavov -125 (Bodog)
Won’t even mind if Cannonier maintains his spot in the rankings and I stay in the red with my favourite picks because the veteran is so easy to cheer for, however I thought Imavov looked great earlier this year and believe he is entering his prime. His speed and likely willingness to mix up his techniques, opposed to settling into a straight kickboxing match, is why I give the younger, taller fighter the edge in this main event.
Aaron’s favourite record: 12-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$171.62
Dan’s favourite record: 12-6
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$134.37
Mike’s favourite record: 10-8
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$157.59
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Denise Gomes +140 (DraftKings)
While I think Eduarda Maura is a solid fighter, I will take the younger fighter with the higher quality wins. Gomes has losses to Angela Hill and Loma Lookboonmee, both of whom are similar fighters with well-rounded stand up skills. Gomes is at her best when she faces more well-rounded opponents and is given the opportunity to mix up both her striking and grappling. I like the value that she presents as an underdog against the undefeated Maura.
Dan: Thiago Moises +110 (DraftKings)
I think Thiago Moises vs. Ludovit Klein will be a close fight. I’m leaning Moises here only because you can get him at plus money. Moises has been in the Octagon with the very best in Islam Makhachev and won’t be put off by Klein. After losing to Benoit Saint Denis by KO, Moises bounced back nicely with a KO of his own over newcomer Mitch Ramirez. This one will be fun to watch.
Mike: Ricky Turcios +205 (Caesars)
Was ready to pounce all over Turcios when these two were supposed to fight in Mexico City and while I’m a little less confident heading into this event, the Team Alpha Male member’s awkward style and experience edge could slow the progress of his teenage opponent.
Aaron’s underdog record: 8-10
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$135
Dan’s underdog record: 5-13
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$670
Mike’s underdog record: 8-10
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$17
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Dustin Stoltzfus by submission +600 (DraftKings)
Ferreira is a force to be reckoned with in the first round. He has big power and aside from two stoppages early in the second round, he has exclusively had first round finishes. While Stoltzfus has been knocked out in the first round by Abus Nurmagomedov, he is typically very durable and if this fight gets out of the first round, I expect him to take advantage of a tiring Ferreira with his grappling and take him into deep waters.
Dan: Charles Radtke by TKO +700 (Fan Duel)
Radtke knocked out Gilbert Urbina in Round 1 the last time out. Radtke and Prates like to throw disguised bombs, so there is a high probability that one of these heavy hitters wins by KO. With +700 odds just sitting there, this is as good a dart throw as any considering Radtke’s favourite weapon is that dangerous left hook.
Mike: Dominick Reyes by decision +550 (DraftKings)
It’s Reyes’s first fight in 19 months and he’s coming off three consecutive knockout losses, while Jacoby has lost three of four. Wouldn’t surprise me of both 205-pounders are a little more tactical and patient than they typically are and I also see Reyes as having more ways to wins, despite his underdog status. A fourth straight KO/TKO loss may spell the end of his UFC tenure so there’s a lot on the line for the two-time title challenger.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-15-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,100
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-17
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$1,000
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-13-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,000
(Betting odds above submitted at various times throughout week and subject to change prior to fights)