Analysis: The Impact of the Oilers' Defence on Their Potential Stanley Cup Victory

The Edmonton Oilers have a well-earned reputation as a dynamic offensive team. Their opponent in the Stanley Cup Final has morphed into arguably the best defensive team in the NHL over the past couple of years.

But for as good as the Florida Panthers are defensively, the Oilers have been just as stout in their own end in these playoffs.  

Stuart Skinner’s poor start to the post-season and Darnell Nurse’s well-documented struggles have overshadowed the Oilers’ impressive defensive performance during their run. (It helps that the Oilers have often played from ahead in the playoffs, scoring first in 14 of their 18 games and leading after two periods 12 times.)


It is a continuation of the work started by Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch and his staff back in November, when Edmonton fired Jay Woodcroft after 10 losses in 13 games to open the season. Over the final five months of the regular season, the Oilers ranked sixth in the league in expected goals against per game.

The biggest improvement has come on the penalty kill, which was at 70 per cent under Woodcroft. Led by assistant coach Mark Stuart, who took over the unit following the coaching change, the Oilers have killed 28 consecutive penalties dating to Game 3 of the second round and are 46-for-49 (93.9 per cent) in the playoffs. (The Panthers’ penalty kill ranks second in the playoffs at 88.2 per cent.)

“We almost take their will with our kill,” Oilers defenceman Mattias Ekholm told reporters.


One area where the Panthers have the upper hand on the Oilers is their defensive depth. Florida has three consistent pairs, led by the formidable Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad, who have combined to shut down some of the top forwards in the league through three rounds. For example, the New York Rangers scored zero goals and generated 11 scoring chances at 5-on-5 in the 46:33 that Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad shared the ice with Forsling and Ekblad in the Eastern Conference final.

The other two pairs — Niko Mikkola/Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson/Dmitry Kulikov — have generated more than 50 per cent of the expected goals during their 5-on-5 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Oilers’ second and third pairs have struggled, regardless of configuration. Over the past three games, Edmonton has generated 24.6 per cent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 with Nurse and Brett Kulak on the ice. Philip Broberg and Cody Ceci have a 48.5 xGF% at 5-on-5 over that span.

If the Oilers win the Stanley Cup for the first time in 34 years, a lot of credit will go to Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the team’s other offensive stars. But Edmonton’s team-wide commitment to defence should not go overlooked.

“I hope we’ve turned into a better defensive team because it’s a big part of making it far,” Ekholm told reporters last month. “If you look at the last couple teams that have made a run at it, they can play that stubborn defence. I think we’ve taken strides in it.”

All stats via Sportlogiq

The Edmonton Oilers have been a dominant force in the NHL this season, thanks in large part to their high-powered offense led by superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. However, as the playoffs approach, many are wondering if their defense is strong enough to carry them to a Stanley Cup victory.

The Oilers’ defense has been a point of concern for many fans and analysts throughout the season. While they have shown flashes of brilliance at times, they have also been prone to defensive lapses and costly turnovers. This inconsistency has raised questions about whether or not they have what it takes to shut down the top offensive teams in the league when it matters most.

One of the main issues facing the Oilers’ defense is their lack of depth. While they have a solid top pairing in Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie, they have struggled to find consistent production from their bottom two pairings. This has put added pressure on their top players to log heavy minutes and carry the load defensively, which could become a problem as the playoffs wear on.

Another concern for the Oilers is their ability to defend against the top offensive teams in the league. While they have shown flashes of strong defensive play, they have also been exposed at times by teams with high-powered offenses. In order to make a deep playoff run, they will need to tighten up defensively and limit the number of quality scoring chances they give up.

Despite these concerns, there are reasons for optimism when it comes to the Oilers’ defense. They have shown the ability to step up in big moments and make key stops when it matters most. Additionally, they have a strong goaltender in Mike Smith who has the ability to steal games for them when needed.

In order for the Oilers to have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup, their defense will need to step up and play at a high level consistently. They will need to limit turnovers, tighten up defensively, and provide support for their goaltender in order to shut down the top offensive teams in the league.

Overall, while the Oilers’ defense may be a point of concern heading into the playoffs, they have shown the ability to rise to the occasion when needed. If they can tighten up defensively and play at a high level consistently, they have a legitimate shot at making a deep playoff run and potentially hoisting the Stanley Cup at the end of the season.