The Dallas Mavericks‘ 2024 NBA Finals story starts with belief.
They believed enough in Luka Doncic to trade for him at the 2018 NBA Draft when the four teams above them raised doubts about the Slovenian. They believed in Jason Kidd as a head coach when he was written off after stints with Brooklyn and Milwaukee. They believed in Kyrie Irving when his stock was at an all-time low after a bevy of injuries and off-court controversy with both the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets.
Last season, the Mavs went 9-18 to finish the season after acquiring Irving. This season, the team sat at a pedestrian 26-23 on Feb. 3 after a 129-117 loss to Milwaukee. Was Doncic and Irving already a failed experiment? Was there just not enough talent around them to make it work? Instead of a knee-jerk reaction, Dallas kept the faith and elected to tweak.
P.J. Washington was languishing in Charlotte. Ditto, Daniel Gafford in Washington. No other team saw either of them as enough of a difference-maker. Dallas did. Even after the acquisitions, Dallas was stuck in the mud and lost five of six despite Doncic scoring at least 30 points in each of those games. The Mavs, once again, kept at it and changed the starting lineup.
Suddenly, the defence hit top gear and Dallas finished the season 16-4. The Mavs returning to the Finals for the first time since Dirk Nowitzki went nuclear in 2011 is a great case study in keeping the faith, chipping away bit-by-bit, and identifying opportunities where others see pitfalls.
How their 2024 story ends is up in the air, but there’s no sense in doubting Dallas now.
NBA Finals Schedule:
Game 1: Thursday, June 6. Mavericks @ Celtics, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 2: Sunday, June 9. Mavericks @ Celtics, 8:00 p.m. ET (Sportsnet/Sportsnet+)
Game 3: Wednesday, June 12. Celtics @ Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Friday, June 14. Celtics @ Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 5*: Monday, June 17. Mavericks @ Celtics, 8:30 p.m. ET (if necessary)
Game 6*: Thursday, June 20. Celtics @ Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET (if necessary)
Game 7*: Sunday, June 23. Mavericks @ Celtics, 8:00 p.m. ET (if necessary)
Season Series: Celtics won 2-0
• Jan. 22, Celtics @ Mavericks. Boston won 119-110
• Mar. 1, Mavericks @ Celtics. Boston won 138-110
Regular season record: 50-32 (Fifth in Western Conference)
Road to the NBA Finals:
West Round 1: Eliminated Clippers 4-2
West Semifinals: Eliminated Thunder 4-2
West Finals: Eliminated Wolves 4-1
Why the Mavericks can win:
As we’ve already seen over the course of this post-season, when you have Doncic and Irving, anything is possible. One of the most talented backcourts in league history has figured out every defence thrown at them so far, and the challenge is now steepest against the league’s top defence.
Beyond that superstar backcourt, though, the Mavericks’ ability to win this series will be dictated by its defence. Pretty quietly — because of the names in their backcourt — Dallas’s defence has looked spectacular.
After the trade deadline, Dallas was struggling and it was all about a league-worst defence over the course of a month. The breaking point was a 137-120 loss to the Indiana Pacers, after which head coach Jason Kidd replaced Dereck Lively II and Josh Green with Gafford and Derrick Jones Jr. in the starting lineup.
The result was a complete transformation, Dallas finishing with the league’s second-best defence over its final 20 games. So far this post-season, the Mavs boast the fifth-best defensive rating (111.2), right behind the fourth-placed Celtics (110.5).
Burning question for the Mavericks: Can Gafford and Lively II win the battle of the bigs?
Doncic and Irving are favoured to win the backcourt battle against Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be expected to win the forward battle against P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. With that in mind, how Gafford and Lively II fare against Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford in the battle of the bigs could be what swings the series.
Gafford and Lively II passed their first test of going up against a stretch big in Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren, but a healthy Porzingis would present a more well-rounded offensive package as Porzingis — beyond his three-point proficiency — led the league in post-up efficiency (1.30 points per post-up possession) during the regular season.
Porzingis has participated in multiple scrimmages with the hope of returning from a strained left calf that has kept him out of action since Game 4 of the East first-round battle against Miami. He will be raring to go against his former team.
The Mavs bigs won against the Thunder’s spacing by bullying them as much as possible inside and winning the rebounding battle consistently. Against what has been the league’s best team all season, Gafford and Lively II must find a way to do the same in this matchup.
X-Factor: P.J. Washington
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I had Washington as the X-Factor against both the Thunder and Wolves so there’s no need to turn back now.
Washington averaged 17.7 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting 46.9 percent from three in the conference semis, though he wasn’t quite as effective against the Wolves with 12.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and a block per game. He shot just 25 percent from three for the series and is now at 30.5 percent from three in 40 games (both regular season and playoffs) as a Maverick outside of that series.
The 25-year-old is going to spend time defending both Tatum and Brown, and will need to show that his efficiency against the Thunder wasn’t a mirage.