As is usually the case when teams play against the Oilers, the Dallas Stars‘ plan looks something like “build a dam and hope to slow the flood of Edmonton’s offence, then hope to get lucky at the other end.” The Stars defend well, and have a great goaltender, so taking care of business in their end is possible, though challenging.
Let’s take a look at what that game plan has looked like when it comes to the numbers (stats courtesy SportLogiq and the NHL), before zooming back out.
The Oilers are still getting rushes
Through two games of this series, rush chances are 16-3 for the Oilers. Edmonton was top-five at creating these looks in the regular season, and even Dallas’ tight attention to detail hasn’t slowed them down in that regard. But with only four goals in 7.5 periods of hockey, the Oilers need to take advantage of those opportunities, as chances are a lot tougher to come by in other facets of the game.
One of the reasons they’re able to get those rush chances?
Dallas is forechecking the hell out of the Oilers
Forecheck chances in this series are 9-2 for the Stars. What that tells me is Dallas is bringing their F2 in hard on the forecheck to try making retrievals and breakouts hard on the Oilers’ defence – a decent strategy considering it’s not Edmonton’s greatest strength. But when you send forwards hard, it can open up some space for the breakout if the puck gets by, hence the Oilers controlling the rush play so far in the series.
Those numbers reflect some of how the games have been played, but perhaps the most telling are the numbers when Connor McDavid is on the ice.
The Stars aren’t letting pucks through to the net with 97 on the ice
If you were game-planning to slow down McDavid, you’d simply say: he’s the fastest man alive on the ice, if not without the puck then definitely with it. He can make plays with it and think at that speed, unlike some of the other “fastest skaters” league-wide.
And so, you would say that we’re not so concerned with “gapping up” McDavid. You would concede some east-west play above your defence, and you’d let him skate around the outside by packing up in front of your goalie, all so he can’t blow your doors off and get multiple breakaways. As a result, McDavid has plenty of touches, and his line controls the play a lot, but they haven’t been able to get a ton of pucks through the maze of bodies to the net.
With McDavid on the ice at 5-on-5 in Game 2, the Oilers controlled shot attempts 25-9, but only had a shots advantage of 12-7.
It’s a dangerous game to let McDavid tool around the offensive zone and allow his line to try to find new ways in — they probably will eventually — but it’s helped Dallas keep games close, and get one win to date.
If Edmonton can’t score in those minutes, they’ll need special teams success. And while their PK has been good, they haven’t scored on the PP in the first two games of this series.
To win, the Oilers will need their power play humming again
There are legitimate complaints to be made about the lack of calls going against Dallas, and those may yet come. But right now, the Oilers aren’t just suffering from a lack of calls or bad luck on the power play, their process is a bit off too.
In Rounds 1 and 2, the Oilers completed an average of 1.54 slot passes per two-minute power play. Against Dallas, they’ve yet to complete a single one.
Yes, Dallas takes away the middle well, but the Oilers shouldn’t be content to use the space outside just because it’s being offered.
Let’s zoom out. Monday night, we’re heading into some “unstoppable force meets immovable object” territory.
The Oilers almost always bounce back from losses
Between these playoffs and last year’s, the Oilers have an 8-1 record following a loss. This season they’re 4-0 after a loss, scoring a whopping 4.5 goals per game and allowing just 1.8. Their power play is 33.3 per cent and their penalty kill is 93.3 per cent. In those games Stuart Skinner has a .919 save percentage.
But the problem here is…
Dallas absolutely dominates on the road
They were 26-10-5 on the road this regular season, which was the best in the NHL. In the playoffs, the Stars’ 5-1 road record is… also the best in the NHL to date. They’re winning on the road at the best clip in the history of their franchise, so they’re not a team to take for granted.
We started with systems, pulled back to teams, and now let’s talk about Game 3s in general. The first stat relates to the one about Dallas’ success on the road…
Home teams have struggled in Game 3s
Historically, home teams lose Game 3, because the lesser team does not have home ice advantage and is returning home (.491 winning percentage all-time). But this season home teams are a dismal 1-12 in Game 3 (Colorado has been the only team to win at home in Game 3 this playoff season, doing so against Winnipeg), which is a massive statistical outlier, so far.
And so…
The start is everything
Whoever leads after the first period of a Game 3 has won more than three-quarters of the games all-time.
The Oilers controlled the first period of Game 2 to a significant degree (they had over 15 minutes of “Ice Tilt”), so it’s just a matter of getting a few more pucks across the line.
Which is why we’ll start off the closing notes with…
The battle is for the Stars’ inner slot
In Game 2 Jake Oettinger made 28 of 29 saves and stopped every shot taken outside the inner slot. In Game 1, Zach Hyman powered in a puck five-hole from the inner slot as well. Given how Dallas protects that area, will Oettinger stay flawless on shots from distance? And if so, can Edmonton get inside enough?
Roope Hintz may return in Game 3
Jason Robertson hasn’t scored without Hintz in the lineup this post-season. When Hintz is in Robertson is far more dangerous, with his slot shots going from 0.69 to 1.24, and cycle chances going from 0.46 to 1.52. A Hintz return would give Dallas two more threats, not just one.
And finally…
Can Skinner make enough stops to help the Oilers through?
He’s been very good for a handful of games now, which should give Edmonton some comfort. I do think they’ll score more, too, but it always remains an underlying subplot. Can Skinner keep it up, and keep Dallas’ total down?
Check in after Game 3 this week when we’ll look closer at Ice Tilt to break down the first three games of the Western Conference Final!